Looking Ahead to World Cup Qualifying 2011

As a supporter of Canada, it is disappointing that we are already eliminated from the World Cup that is due to take place in less than a year in South Africa. But it is never to early to look ahead to 2014 in Brazil right? Which is exactly what I have done. Looking at the way that qualifying took place the last time around, I spent most of my weekend figuring out FIFA qualifying and ranking systems, to determine where Canada (and all other CONCACAF countries) stand in relation to Qualifying for the 2014 World Cup. So here goes:

You may recall that the World Cup Qualifying Draw was made BEFORE the Gold Cup in 2007. My planning was based upon this being the same next time around which means that the WCQ Draw will happen some time in May 2011. FIFA rankings take into account the last four years of a teams results. There is no penalty for losing, you gain points through wins & draws. A team can lose points over time as the ranking system values results differently. So the Current year is rated at 100%, last year at 50%, two years ago at 30%, and three years ago at 20%. So a team will appear to have lost points if a strong result crosses the threshold. I have skipped this by adjusting the values as if the date was May 2011, using the following dates. June 07 - May 08 20%, June 08 - May 09 30%, June 09 - May 10 50%, and June 10 - May 11 100%. We are already in the third phase for points that count towards are position in May 2011. So without further delay here are the current standings:

May 2011 Ranking	Country	Points for May 2011	Gap behind next	Current CONCACAF Ranking
1	United States of America	6969.28	0	1
2	Mexico	4933.1705	2036.1095	3
3	Costa Rica	4669.233	263.9375	2
4	Honduras	4546.451	122.782	4
5	El Salvador	3419.134	1127.317	10
6	Jamaica	2600.405	818.729	5
7	Trinidad & Tobago	2557.7775	42.6275	7
8	Canada	2437.255	120.5225	11
9	Panama	1949.369	487.886	6
10	Haiti	1437.871	511.498	16
11	Guatemala	1120.88	316.991	14
12	Cuba	1119.918	0.962	8
13	Grenada	1118.388	1.53	9
14	Antigua & Barbuda	918.595	199.793	12
15	Suriname	768.825	149.77	15
16	Barbados	735.335	33.49	13
17	Bermuda	479.3575	255.9775	21
18	Guyana	392.36	86.9975	17
19	Netherlands Antilles	360.06	32.3	19
20	Nicaragua	263.2875	96.7725	18
21	St. Kitts & Nevis	230.095	33.1925	20
22	Puerto Rico	221.2125	8.8825	23
23	Belize	116.875	104.3375	25
24	St. Vincent & the Grenadines	107.695	9.18	22
25	Cayman Islands	65.875	41.82	24
26	Turks & Caicos	63.75	2.125	27
27	British Virgin Islands	59.5	4.25	30
28	Bahamas	42.5	17	26
29	Aruba	32.5125	9.9875	31
30	Dominica	24.65	7.8625	32
31	St. Lucia	21.25	3.4	29
31	Dominican Republic	21.25	0	28
33	US Virgin Islands	17	4.25	33
34	Montserrat	0	17	35
34	Anguilla	0	0	34

Teams 1 - 6 are the top seeds and are placed in the draw for Stage 2 of Qualifying in such away that they will be the top two teams in the three groups that form Stage 3.

Teams 7 - 12 are also given a bye to Stage 2, but they could end up with any of the top seeds (This is where Canada was last time around)

Teams 13 - 35 are placed in Stage 1, with one team randomly getting a bye to Stage 2.

Stages 1 & 2 are a playoff format - with only one team advancing. Stage 3 is three groups with four teams with the top two teams advancing to Stage 4, or "The Hex".

The Hex is where 6 teams fight it out for 3.5 places in the World Cup (The .5 is a playoff against a 5th place South American team).

For Canada to have the best chance possible at reaching The Hex, we should try to ensure that we are in the top 6 teams by May of 2011. As you can see we are currently sitting in 8th. In case you were wondering these stats are current, including the group stages of the Gold Cup. Should Canada manage a quarterfinal victory against Honduras we will gain 615.825 points (410.55 if we win in overtime or shootout) towards our May 2011 totals. Which would see us break into the top six. Getting results in the Gold Cup is very important for Canada as it is our only chance to accumulate big points before the World Cup Draw is made in 2011. Just to give you an idea of what I am talking about. A friendly match has a multiplier of 1, A Gold Cup Qualifier or World Cup Qualifier 2.5, Gold Cup or Confederation's Cup 3, and World Cup 4. So if Canada beat Honduras next week in a friendly we would get 205.275 points towards 2011.
If Canada beat Honduras next week in WCQ we would get 513.1875 points towards 2011.
If Canada beat Honduras next week in the Gold Cup we would get 615.825 points towards 2011.
And If Canada beat Honduras next week in the World Cup we would get 821.1 points towards 2011.

Any CONCACAF country that makes the World Cup will get a big bonus for any results they get there. As will any team still in the Gold Cup (except for Guadelope who are not a country or member of FIFA, incidentally teams do NOT get points for beating them either). The six sides still competing in The Hex will also get a chance to boost their numbers with inflated multipliers. The Central American teams & Caribbean teams will get an advantage of playing in Gold Cup qualifiers before May 2011. Canada, USA, & Mexico get automatic places in the Gold Cup and thus do not get the opportunity to get points from qualifying matches.

So what can we do to make sure that we are in a great spot in May 2011? Simple win the Gold Cup, beating Honduras, USA, & Mexico ideally, but even that won't guarantee us a top six finish. WE NEED TO PLAY FRIENDLIES, LOTS AND LOTS OF FRIENDLIES! I was surprised to see the sheer number of matches that Trinidad & Tobago play, which is why even though we won our group in the Gold Cup, and they failed to qualify they are still ahead of us. Jack Warner knows how the system works and is certainly using it, and so should we! With the new rules that make virtually no difference between the U21 side and playing in a friendly. I would like to see Canada field teams (not necessarily our A team, perhaps the U21 team) in senior friendlies against any opposition we can find. There are certainly some teams where we could get more points, such as European or South American opponents as European teams give a multiplier of 1.00, while CONMEBOL gives 0.98 compared to 0.85 for CONCACAF and everyone else. But the main thing is that we need to play matches. Take the team on a Caribbean tour, play St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Turks & Caicos, Bahamas, Aruba... and rack up points along the way. We could be sneaky about it and play teams when they are at their weakest for example play Bolivia at sea level, play a country with one star when that star is injured, or our tried and tested strategy of playing anyone in November in Edmonton.

Canada really needs to take advantage of the fact that we can field a squad of North American based players, and these players are off from November to March. Canada needs to go on a tour and play a lot of matches in that time. If we don't play a lot of friendlies then we won't be able to grab a place in the top six, which means we run the risk of ending up in a group like we did last time around, which is something nobody wants to happen which is why I am sounding the alarm now.

I will keep updating the list. I will post the updated at the conclusion of the Gold Cup.