Relegation Battles - Update

As you know we have been watching the relegation battles across England, Italy, & Germany. Here is an update on what has changed in those battles.

In English Premier League both Bolton & Fulham are now safe from the drop. In the Championship Sheffield United & Doncaster Rovers were both relegated, so the relegation battle in the English 2nd tier is over. In League One Plymouth were relegated. In League Two Stockport were relegated, leaving the battle for the last relegation place between Lincoln City & Barnet.

In Italy Fiorentina & Genoa are safe from the drop in Serie A. There were no changes in Serie B. Though Reggina could achieve safety if they win their suspended match against Albinoleffe. Albinoleffe were leading 1-0 in the 1st half when the match was suspended.

In die Bundesliga Freiburg are safe from the drop. FC Inglostadt 04 & SC Paderborn 07 are also safe from the drop in die 2 Bundesliga.

Lots of big matches remaining, especially in the football leagues in England with only one match left in their season. This weekend is also the big match between Cologne & Frankfurt in die Bundesliga.

Relegation Battles - Germany

As Sunday signals the arrival of May and the last month of club football in most European leagues, lets focus in on the relegation battles raging all over the place. I am putting up one post for each country. This post is about Germany.

First up the Bundesliga.

In the Bundesliga the bottom two sides are relegated to the 2 Bundesliga. The team 3rd from the bottom enters into a playoff against the 3rd place team from the 2 Bundesliga.

Teams involved in the relegation battle (I am using any team that is not mathematically safe)

Bold indicates a Six Point match against a fellow relegation candidate.

Italics indicate a local derby.

* - indicates a team can only be involved in the playoff and are safe from outright relegation.

Freiburg* 41p, -8: @Hamburger, @Borussia M'gladbach, Leverkusen

Hoffenheim* 40p, +2: Stuttgart, @Nürnberg, Wolfsburg

Schalke* 40p, 0: @Bayern Munich, Mainz, @Köln

Werder Bremen 38p, -14: Wolfsburg, Dortmund, @Kaiserslautern

Kaiserslautern 37p, -7: St. Pauli, @Wolfsburg, Werder Bremen

Stuttgart 36p, 0: @Hoffenheim, Hannover, @Bayern Munich

Köln 35p -20: Leverkusen, @Eintracht Frankfurt, Schalke

Eintracht Frankfurt 34p, -11: @Mainz, Köln, @Dortmund

Wolfsburg 32p, -7: @Werder Bremen, Kaiserslautern, @Hoffenheim

Borussia M'gladbach 29p, -20: @Hannover, Freiburg, @Hamburger

St. Pauli 29p, -23: @Kaiserslautern, Bayern Munich, @Mainz

I don't think either of the two teams at the bottom of the table have much hope of escaping the drop. St. Pauli & Borussia M'gladbach will be playing football in 2 Bundesliga next year. The real battle is to avoid the playoff, for me this comes down to one match in round 33. Eintracht Frankfurt - Köln. I think that Wolfsburg will be able to get more points than at least one of these teams. For both Köln & Eintracht Frankfurt this is really there only winnable match down the stretch. As I need to pick someone I think it will be Köln that end up in the playoff against the 3rd place team from 2 Bundesliga.

2 Bundesliga.

In the Bundesliga the bottom two sides are relegated to the 3rd Liga. The team 3rd from the bottom enters into a playoff against the 3rd place team from the 3rd Liga.

Teams involved in the relegation battle (I am using any team that is not mathematically safe)

Bold indicates a Six Point match against a fellow relegation candidate.

Italics indicate a local derby.

* - indicates a team can only be involved in the playoff and are safe from outright relegation.

Arminia Bielefeld are already relegated to the 3rd Liga

FC Ingolstadt 04 35p, -5: FC Erzgebirge Aue, @TSV München von 1860, VfL Osnabrück

SC Paderborn 07 33p, -15: VfL Osnabrück, @MSV Duisburg, TSV München von 1860

Karlsruher SC 29p, -26: Fortuna Düsseldorf, @Arminia Bielefeld, 1. FC Union Berlin

VfL Osnabrück 28p -20: @SC Paderborn 07, VfL Bochum 1848, @FC Ingolstadt 04

Rot-Weiß Oberhausen 28p, -26: @Alemannia Aachen, SpVgg Greuther Fürth, @FC Energie Cottbus

It is quite tight, but I think that VfL Osnabrück will not get the points they need away to Paderborn 07. That means that they will take the drop down to the 3rd. Liga. I think that Rot-Weiß Oberhausen will end up in the playoff against the 3rd place side in the 3rd Liga.

Relegation Battles - England

As Sunday signals the arrival of May and the last month of club football in most European leagues, lets focus in on the relegation battles raging all over the place. I am putting up one post for each country. This post is about England.

First up the Premier League.

In the Premier League the bottom three sides are relegated to the Championship.

Teams involved in the relegation battle (I am using any team that is not mathematically safe)

Bold indicates a Six Point match against a fellow relegation candidate.

Italics indicate a local derby.

Bolton 46p +1 @Blackburn, Sunderland, @Blackpool, City

Fulham 42p +4 @Sunderland, Liverpool, @Birmingham, Arsenal

Stoke 42p 0 @Blackpool, Arsenal, @City, Wigan

Newcastle 41p +1 @Liverpool, Birmingham, @Chelsea, WBA

Sunderland 41p -10 Fulham, @Bolton, Wolves, @West Ham

Aston Villa 41p -12 @WBA, Wigan, @Arsenal, Liverpool

West Brom 40p -15 Aston Villa, @Wolves, Everton, @Newcastle

Birmingham 38p -17 Wolves, @Newcastle, Fulham, @Spurs

Blackburn 35p -15 Bolton, @West Ham, United, @Wolves

Blackpool 34p - 22 Stoke, @Tottenham, Bolton, @United

Wigan 34p - 23 Everton, @Aston Villa, West Ham, @Stoke

Wolves 33p - 23 @Birmingham, WBA, @Sunderland, Blackburn

West Ham 32p -22 @City, Blackburn, @Wigan, Sunderland

As you can see there a bevy of important matches down the stretch. The three teams I have dropping down to the Championship are: Wolves, Wigan, & West Ham. Obviously with there still being 4 matches remaining there are a number of different situations. I am certain that West Ham will be relegated. I kept flopping over which teams would join them in going down, in the end I went with Wolves and Wigan.

Now to the Championship.

In the Championship the bottom three teams are relegated to League One.

Teams involved in the relegation battle (I am using any team that is not mathematically safe)

Bold indicates a Six Point match against a fellow relegation candidate.

Italics indicate a local derby.

Preston North End are already relegated.

Crystal Palace 47p -22 @Hull, Forest

Doncaster 47p - 23 Leicester, @Boro

Sheffield United 41p - 31 Barnsley, @Swansea

Scunthorpe 41p - 40 @Forest, @Pompey

The chances of either Sheffield United or Scunthorpe escaping the drop are very small. I think it could come down to the last day of the season for Sheffield United & Doncaster. Crystal Palace are safe and Scunthorpe are going down. I would love to see Sheffield United pull off one of the all time great escapes, but I think they left it a little to late. So they take the drop with PNE & Scunthorpe.

League One

In League One the bottom four teams are relegated to League Two.

Teams involved in the relegation battle (I am using any team that is not mathematically safe)

Bold indicates a Six Point match against a fellow relegation candidate.

Italics indicate a local derby.

Swindon are already relegated.

Notts County 49p - 13 @MK Dons, Brighton

Walsall 45p - 15 Charlton, @Southampton

Dag & Red 44p - 16 Carlisle, @Peterborough

Bristol Rovers 44p - 33 Wednesday, @Colchester

Plymouth 42p - 17 @Exeter, Southampton, Leyton Orient

I think that Walsall will take the drop along with Bristol Rovers & Plymouth. I just can't see Walsall getting any more points and they run the risk of being lit up by Southampton.

League Two.

In League Two the bottom two teams are relegated to Conference.

Teams involved in the relegation battle (I am using any team that is not mathematically safe)

Bold indicates a Six Point match against a fellow relegation candidate.

Italics indicate a local derby.

Morecambe 51p - 13 @Port Vale, Northampton

Macclesfield 51p - 16 @Gillingham, Hereford

Cheltenham 51p - 20 Shrewsbury, @Stockport

Bradford 51p - 21 @Hereford, Crewe

Burton 49p - 14 @Southend, Accrington

Hereford 48p - 16 Bradford, @Macclesfield

Lincoln 47p - 32 @Oxford Utd, Aldershot

Northampton 46p - 11 Stevenage, @Morecambe

Barnet 45p - 18 @Accrington, Port Vale

Stockport 40p - 46 @Crewe, Cheltenham

Stockport are going down. There is no way that they will make up the massive goal difference. They had a golden opportunity to survive on the weekend when they hosted Northampton, but only managed a draw. Coincidentally, I think it will be Northampton that join them in the drop out of League football.

What will happen in the last 7 games of the Championship

Who will be the Champion?

Queens Park Rangers.
Why they are 9 points clear at the top presently. There next three matches are away to last place Scunthorpe and Barnsley, plus home to Derby. I expect them to win all three of these matches which will in essence lock up the title for them. I think they will lift the trophy at Loftus Road when they host Hull on April 25th.

Who will grab the second promotion place?

Norwich.
It will be a very tight race and could easily go the other way depending on a few results. The team that I see pushing them to the end is Cardiff. Norwich's next match is away to Swansea if they lose that then it becomes a 3 team race for second. I think Norwich will do enough to get at least a draw.

Who will be in the Playoffs?

Cardiff, Swansea, Reading, and Leeds.
The two Welsh sides are locks for playoff spots. But the other two playoff places are part of a wide open race involving heaps of teams. I think that Reading will get on a bit of a winning streak and force themselves into the playoffs. While the fight between Leeds and Nottingham Forest will be for the final spot. Unfortunately for Forest fans, I think they will fall just short. No doubt a disappointing end to what looked like a promising campaign.

So... what about Pompey?

10th.
I think that though Pompey are mathematically amongst the heap of teams with a chance at a playoff place, their schedule is too tough for them to win out. That said they will move up a few places and finish with a solid tenth. This will give us a strong foundation to build on for next year. I will be happy with this finish given how much of the season we spent worried about ending up in the relegation battle.

Who will be dropping down to League One?

Scunthorpe, Sheffield United, and Doncaster
Scunthorpe are a lost cause and will finish in last. Sheffield United seem to have lost the belief. They have an absolutely huge game away to Preston in a few weeks. Which you may have guessed I think PNE will win. Preston seem to have found some belief and have been grabbing a lot more points. That said it will be a stiff task to catch any of the teams above them. To do this they need to continue playing with the same belief they discovered in the past few weeks. With Doncaster, they have been far from fantastic and I don't see them getting many points in their final 7 matches. In reality if they get it together and get 4 or 5 points they will survive. However I didn't see them getting that many. When I worked it out, I actually had them taking the drop on goal difference. If you are wondering why I didn't mention Crystal Palace, it is because of their phenomenal home record (36 of 42 points at home). They are a top 10 team at home, so with there 3 remaining home matches they are as good as safe.

Disagree? Agree? Let me know your predictions in the comments.