Relegation Battles - Germany

As Sunday signals the arrival of May and the last month of club football in most European leagues, lets focus in on the relegation battles raging all over the place. I am putting up one post for each country. This post is about Germany.

First up the Bundesliga.

In the Bundesliga the bottom two sides are relegated to the 2 Bundesliga. The team 3rd from the bottom enters into a playoff against the 3rd place team from the 2 Bundesliga.

Teams involved in the relegation battle (I am using any team that is not mathematically safe)

Bold indicates a Six Point match against a fellow relegation candidate.

Italics indicate a local derby.

* - indicates a team can only be involved in the playoff and are safe from outright relegation.

Freiburg* 41p, -8: @Hamburger, @Borussia M'gladbach, Leverkusen

Hoffenheim* 40p, +2: Stuttgart, @Nürnberg, Wolfsburg

Schalke* 40p, 0: @Bayern Munich, Mainz, @Köln

Werder Bremen 38p, -14: Wolfsburg, Dortmund, @Kaiserslautern

Kaiserslautern 37p, -7: St. Pauli, @Wolfsburg, Werder Bremen

Stuttgart 36p, 0: @Hoffenheim, Hannover, @Bayern Munich

Köln 35p -20: Leverkusen, @Eintracht Frankfurt, Schalke

Eintracht Frankfurt 34p, -11: @Mainz, Köln, @Dortmund

Wolfsburg 32p, -7: @Werder Bremen, Kaiserslautern, @Hoffenheim

Borussia M'gladbach 29p, -20: @Hannover, Freiburg, @Hamburger

St. Pauli 29p, -23: @Kaiserslautern, Bayern Munich, @Mainz

I don't think either of the two teams at the bottom of the table have much hope of escaping the drop. St. Pauli & Borussia M'gladbach will be playing football in 2 Bundesliga next year. The real battle is to avoid the playoff, for me this comes down to one match in round 33. Eintracht Frankfurt - Köln. I think that Wolfsburg will be able to get more points than at least one of these teams. For both Köln & Eintracht Frankfurt this is really there only winnable match down the stretch. As I need to pick someone I think it will be Köln that end up in the playoff against the 3rd place team from 2 Bundesliga.

2 Bundesliga.

In the Bundesliga the bottom two sides are relegated to the 3rd Liga. The team 3rd from the bottom enters into a playoff against the 3rd place team from the 3rd Liga.

Teams involved in the relegation battle (I am using any team that is not mathematically safe)

Bold indicates a Six Point match against a fellow relegation candidate.

Italics indicate a local derby.

* - indicates a team can only be involved in the playoff and are safe from outright relegation.

Arminia Bielefeld are already relegated to the 3rd Liga

FC Ingolstadt 04 35p, -5: FC Erzgebirge Aue, @TSV München von 1860, VfL Osnabrück

SC Paderborn 07 33p, -15: VfL Osnabrück, @MSV Duisburg, TSV München von 1860

Karlsruher SC 29p, -26: Fortuna Düsseldorf, @Arminia Bielefeld, 1. FC Union Berlin

VfL Osnabrück 28p -20: @SC Paderborn 07, VfL Bochum 1848, @FC Ingolstadt 04

Rot-Weiß Oberhausen 28p, -26: @Alemannia Aachen, SpVgg Greuther Fürth, @FC Energie Cottbus

It is quite tight, but I think that VfL Osnabrück will not get the points they need away to Paderborn 07. That means that they will take the drop down to the 3rd. Liga. I think that Rot-Weiß Oberhausen will end up in the playoff against the 3rd place side in the 3rd Liga.

Advance Australia? A Group of Death Preview

No you haven't missed the previews for any other groups, I decided to start with the most interesting group. Which is of course the Group of Death, group D. The teams in this group are Germany, Ghana, Serbia, & Australia. Germany are undoubtedly the strongest team in the group, even with the loss of their captain Ballack. In my opinion Ghana are the strongest African side in the competition, even with the loss of the their captain Essien. Noticing a trend? This group is shaping up nicely for Serbia and Australia.

A few thing that I have looked at a lot in preparation for the matches at the World Cup has been the distance that a side has to travel for their next match, as well as the change in altitude, and their warm up matches. To give you an idea of the altitude in South Africa Jo'burg is 1753m above sea level, Denver is 1609m and Calgary is 1048m. Also by way of comparison La Paz Bolivia is 3640. For distance the longest journeys in the World Cup are between Cape Town and Polokwane, and Cape Town and Nelspruit both over 1700km. Think Toronto - Halifax or Vancouver - Regina.

Here is how Group D shapes up in those categories:

Germany start off in Durban at sea level. Then they travel 950 km to Port Elizabeth to take on Serbia and remain at sea level. For their last match they travel 1062km to Jo'burg and gain 1753 metres in elevation.

Ghana start off in Pretoria at 1214m. They travel 104km to Rustenburg and gain 286m when they face the Socceroos. After that they go 121km to Jo'burg and gain another 253m before their match with Germany.

Serbia begin in Pretoria at 1214m. Following that they travel 1123km to Port Elizabeth and drop to sea level. They wrap up by travelling 1410km to Nelspruit and go back up 660m.

Australia get going in Durban at sea level. They have a 693km journey to Rustenburg and an elevation increase of 1500m. Once they have faced the Black Stars, Australia move 436km down the road to Nelspruit and drop 840m.

Here is how I see the matches playing out.

Serbia - Ghana
Serbia are coming off a loss to New Zealand. While Ghana don't have Essien, they didn't have him for much of the African Cup of Nations either, and they made the final there. Ghana win comfortably.

Germany - Australia
This is a match that the Germans should win, however the Aussies will refuse to give up and hound the Germans all over the pitch and I think it will end in a draw. The Germans will be alright with a point and the Aussies thrilled.

Germany - Serbia
The Germans don't have a lot of problems breaking down the Serbian defense and eliminate them from the Cup with a win.

Ghana - Australia
Ghana will capitalise on their easier journey to Rustenburg and beat the Aussies who are a little worn out after their battling draw with the Germans.

Ghana - Germany
Draw. Ever since the FA Cup final I have thought this will be a draw. The teams are going to come out hard, but I don't think there will be a lot of scoring. Coincidentally a draw sends both teams through to the next round.

Australia - Serbia
Serbia are already eliminated while the Socceroos need a win to keep their hopes of advancing alive. Australia get their win but it is not enough to see them advance.

So here is how I think the Group of Death will finish:

Ghana - 7 points
Germany - 5 points
Australia - 4 points
Serbia - 0 points