The NASL is Coming to Ottawa

The news that broke late last week is now official. The NASL has awarded a team to the Ottawa Sports and Entertainment Group (OSEG). The yet to be named team will play at a redeveloped Lansdowne Park. They will join the league once the stadium is complete, likely in 2013 or 2014. The NASL currently has eight teams, and will stay at eight next season with San Antonio replacing Montreal, who are joining MLS. John Pugh, the owner of the Ottawa Fury and the newest member of OSEG, has been named the team's President.

I was able to attend this announcement and had a conversation with Mr. Pugh. He told me that there would be fan involvement in choosing the team's name and colours. He also spoke of his desire for Ottawa to have a supporter group similar to the Southsiders or the Red Patch Boys. He hoped the games would be fun and noisy. I asked him if he was going to move the Ottawa Fury Women's team to Lansdowne, and he said that was unlikely. He also said there are no plans to bid for a WPS (Women's Professional Soccer) team. During Mr. Pugh's statement to the press, he mentioned that Ottawa would be participating in the Nutrilite Canadian Championship, or as I prefer to call it, the Nutrilite Voyageurs' Cup. I asked him if he thought the NVC should be expanded to include teams in the CSL and other leagues across Canada. He said that is the way the FA Cup & US Open Cup are run and, though more logistically difficult, it is a great treat for fans and he wouldn't mind seeing something similar in Canada.

I also had the opportunity to talk with William Shenkman, another member of OSEG, who has previous football experience as he is part owner of Millwall in England. Shenkman talked about how Millwall came quite close to being relegated from League One in his first season at the club and of their later promotion to the Championship. I asked him if he thought a system of promotion & relegation would work in Canada & the United States. He replied that it wouldn't. He mentioned that clubs here, even established MLS ones, don't have the support to keep a club afloat if they were relegated. He mentioned that even in England some large clubs face a lot of problems if they are relegated and used Millwall's archrivals West Ham as an example. We discussed how difficult it would be for a league to lose a market like New York, LA, or Toronto through relegation. I also talked about expanding the NVC with Mr. Shenkman; he hopes it happens and would look forward to an Ottawa derby with Capital City FC. He told me he is glad there is another team in the city that is getting the community out to watch soccer. He said he doesn't think of Capital City as competition for the soccer dollar, more that both clubs are creating interest in local football and that will help everyone.

The final person I spoke with this morning was NASL Commissioner David Downs. We started by talking about stadiums. He thinks the redeveloped Lansdowne will be a great stadium, however he fears that its 24,000 capacity could be too big. He stated that somewhere between 5,000 & 15,000 seats was about right for the NASL. I asked him if he had a maximum number of teams that he would want to have in the NASL, in light of the MLS likely stopping at 20. He said that anywhere between 12 and 16 teams would be great, adding that eight is too few. Ottawa will be the ninth team when they join the league. He mentioned that the League is in talks with other cities, but wouldn't comment on who they are. He also said that it is important for his league to grow prudently. That said, he did expect there would be more growth now that the MLS is likely to add only one more side. The Commissioner said that everywhere there is a successful first tier there is also a successful second tier. He is confident that the NASL will be successful, as will a team in Ottawa.

Though I tend to share the Commissioner's fears about the 24,000 seat stadium being too large, I am excited to see what will happen next, and will be in the stands when Ottawa's newest professional team takes to the field. I should add that the City, OSEG, and CSA are in talks about having Ottawa as a host city for the 2014 U20 Women's World Cup and the 2015 Women's World Cup. Obviously, the redeveloped Lansdowne would host the matches. Hopefully the construction is finished before 2014 so we can have both NASL and the Women's u20 World Cup here in 2014.

Thoughts on Canada - USA round 1

They were better than us. I thought that Hart's formation was the right choice, it worked well to contain the American wingers which was my biggest concern going into the match. However what seemed to happen was that our wingers would mark their wingers leaving huge amounts of space for the full backs to take advantage of, which they did. The US was at their most dangerous when they had their full backs attacking.

The first goal was unlucky, normally Lars makes that save. I expect that Milos will start the rest of the tournament now barring any further goal keeping errors.

Our marking in the box was poor. Ledgerwood noticed Dempsey was behind him much too late and Dempsey scored because of it. In the first half Carlos Bocanegra was left completely unmarked in the box but managed to miss from a few yards out. That was unlucky for the states so I felt that us being down 1-0 at the half was fair.

Problems in the midfield. Atiba is a good player but he is not Iniesta. Too often Atiba was left with no one to pass to and had to dribble his way past a few people, which he succeeded in doing a couple times. Often we would have players standing and waiting for a pass rather than moving into space and receiving the pass. Dunfield had a poor game. I know that he was starting due to an injury from JDG, his passing was very poor more often leading to turnovers than anything else.

Canada was too cautious in possession. We rarely tried a through ball and opted for a "safer" pass than a pass that put the Americans under pressure nearly every time. Specifically, when Dunfield opted to pass backwards to Ledgerwood instead of to DeRo who was in space and in a more advanced position on the right wing. There was a time when Simpson was making a great run into the box but rather than pass to where he was running the pass went behind him.

Ali Gerba was fantastic when he came on. He forced two great saves from Tim Howard. Speaking of which Howard was brilliant making a number of huge saves to maintain his clean sheet. When Gerba came on, Canada changed its formation and gave the USA more opportunities to attack us but Canada did create more opportunities. I expect that had we started that way the US would have scored more than two goals against us.

Man of the Match: Tim Howard

Play of the day: Clint Dempsey's flying back heel

I expect that Stephen Hart will go with a similar set up next match with changes bringing on Gerba likely for Johnson, JDG in for Dunfield if he is healthy, and switching the keepers.

Playing the way we did against the Americans I think that we should be able to get by Panama & Guadeloupe, but we will need to improve our passing to get through the Quarterfinals.

I am pleased that so many fans traveled to the match, I wish I could have been there. I was disappointed with the tv coverage in Canada. I would like to see Sportsnet move the Jays game to Sportsnet One and put Canada on the main network. If you are the home of Canadian soccer then act like it. The Jays play 162 games every year. This was our first competitive match in two years. I was also disappointed how many bars I had to go to before I found one that was showing it. However I was pleased that about half the Capital City squad turned up to watch as well, even if a few of them were cheering on the Americans.

Thoughts on United's 19th title

This morning on the Score, Kristian Jack wrote a great article about Manchester United winning their 19th title, and it got me thinking. Here in the land where hockey rules, the mark of quality is the performance in the playoffs and the winning of the ultimate prize, the Stanley Cup. However, what would it look like if we re-examined the NHL standings and forgot about the cups and focused on the league crowns. There have been 93 NHL league titles awarded and 112 league titles in England. In the NHL 20 different teams have won the title, in England there have been 23 different winners. Only one of the NHL champions no longer exists, which are the 1925 Champions the Hamilton Tigers. All 23 English Champions are still playing football, with most at the highest level. Of the 20 Hockey Champs 13 have won more than once, with the 23 English Champs 19 have won multiple times. I think we have waited about long enough, lets have a look at the combined list of champions, (number of times won in brackets) and the year of the last league title.

1. Montreal Canadiens (23) - 1978

2. Manchester United (19) - 2011

3. Liverpool (18) - 1990

3. Detroit Red Wings (18) - 2008

5. Arsenal (13) - 2004

6. Boston Bruins (12) - 1990

7. Everton (9) - 1987

8. Ottawa Senators (8) - 2003

9. Aston Villa (7) - 1981

10. Sunderland (6) - 1936

11. Toronto Maple Leafs (5) - 1963

12. Newcastle United (4) - 1927

12. Sheffield Wednesday (4) - 1930

12. Chelsea (4) - 2010

15. Huddersfield Town (3) - 1926

15. Wolverhampton Wanderers (3) - 1959

15. New York Islanders (3) - 1982

15. Edmonton Oilers (3) - 1987

15. Chicago Blackhawks (3) - 1991

15. Leeds United (3) - 1992

15. New York Rangers (3) - 1994

15. Blackburn Rovers (3) - 1995

23. Preston North End (2) - 1890

23. Portsmouth (2) - 1950

23. Burnley (2) - 1960

23. Tottenham Hotspur (2) - 1961

23. Manchester City (2) - 1968

23. Derby County (2) - 1975

23. Philadelphia Flyers (2) - 1985

23. Calgary Flames (2) - 1989

23. Dallas Stars (2) - 1999

23. Colorado Avalanche (2) - 2001

33. Sheffield United (1) - 1898

33. West Bromwich Albion (1) - 1920

33. Hamilton Tigers (1) - 1925

33. Ipswich Town (1) - 1962

33. Nottingham Forest - 1978

33. Pittsburgh Penguins (1) - 1993

33. St. Louis Blues (1) - 2000

33. Buffalo Sabres (1) - 2007

33. San Jose Sharks (1) - 2009

33. Washington Capitals (1) - 2010

33. Vancouver Canucks (1) - 2011

There are a number of interesting stats that I noticed while looking at the lists of champions. First the NHL has had 4 first time champs in the last 5 years, that is remarkable. To give you an idea the last 4 first time champs in England were Nottingham Forest (1978), Derby County (1972), Leeds United (1969) and Ipswich Town (1962). Something else that amazed me were that the great teams of Gretzky & Lemieux won so few titles. Another thing that I noticed when looking at England is that 3 sides won all of their titles in back to back seasons. Portsmouth winning in 1949 & 1950. Huddersfield town winning in 1924, 1925, and 1926. Far away the most painful would be Preston North End winning in 1889 & 1890. The first ever seasons of league football. So North End fans who celebrated back to back titles have endured a wait of 121 seasons for their next title. When you factor in the fact that PNE were just relegated to League One it will be at least 2014 before they can even have a chance to compete for the title again, where they will look to erase a 123 year drought. So Leafs fans who have wondered how bad can things get, you can thank your lucky stars you don't support Preston. Speaking of Leafs fans, the league crowns have done you no favours either with your last title now coming in 1963.

What I found interesting as well was that of the 23 English Champions 13 played this season in the Premier League. 8 Champions were playing in the Championship and 2 were playing in League One. Of course former champions Preston North End & Sheffield were both relegated to League One. Huddersfield are competing in the League One playoffs and could be promoted, while Nottingham Forest are in the Championship playoffs and could be promoted as well. That said it could be former champions Blackburn Rovers or Wolverhampton Wanderers that make room for them in the Premier League. Also if you are curious and think that the Premier League should be for the 20 biggest clubs and do away with relegation. Then using league titles as the criteria those 20 are the 19 teams with more than one title and depending on your tie breaker of choice one of Sheffield United, West Bromwich Albion, Ipswich Town, or Nottingham Forest.

In the NHL some of the more hapless franchises are the New York Rangers and Chicago Blackhawks both of which have played in most of the 93 NHL seasons but have only 3 titles each. Another interesting stat is that all 6 current Canadian NHL teams have one at least one title.

I hope that you found this interesting. Especially as I have another post coming up looking at football in Europe since the 1954 campaign (the first one where you qualified for European competition) to determine what the most successful football club in Europe is. That article will be posted on The Subs Bench.

What is Success?

I fully admit to being someone who looks at success relatively. If Pompey had finished 17th I would have said that we had a successful season. Spurs finished fourth, they had a successful season. However there are those people out there that believe success is winning things full stop. Granted these people tend to be fans of bigger clubs, who feel they have had an unsuccessful season if the trophy cabinet remains empty. So I thought if success is winning something who are the most successful teams in the past five years? I looked at the Premier League, League Cup, FA Cup, Champions League and UEFA Cup / Europa League, and this may surprise you, Only 5 premier league teams have won anything. They are Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Portsmouth, and Tottenham. When you look at the numbers there is not so much a "big four" as a big two. Chelsea and Manchester United have dominated English football for the past five years. United have won three League Titles, three League Cups, and the Champions League. Chelsea have won two League Titles, the League Cup, and two FA Cups. Spurs have won the League Cup, Liverpool and Pompey have both won the FA Cup. Pompey and Chelsea meet in the FA Cup final this weekend, which I am confident Pompey will win. So people that like clubs that win things here are the five clubs that have won things in the last five years. Go ahead and say it, Pompey are a more successful club than Arsenal, Everton, Villa any club that didn't make the list.

Wait what are you saying teams should get recognized for making the final, well alright, if we adjust the table so that you get three points for winning something and a single point for being the runner up, here is what the table looks like.

Manchester United - 24
Chelsea - 22 /20*
Portsmouth - 6 / 4*
Liverpool - 5
Tottenham - 4
Arsenal - 2
Fulham - 1
Middlesbrough - 1
Everton - 1
West Ham - 1
Aston Villa - 1
Wigan Athletic - 1

So there you have it, an FA Cup victory would put Pompey as the third most successful team in England over the last five years. It also shows you just how dominate United & Chelsea have been. Also it worth repeating that Arsenal have not won anything in the last five years, and that you can make that same statement about Liverpool if they don't win anything next year.

Of course there are other realities in football that dictate what success is, it is better to finish in the top four of the league and get into the Champions League than it is to win the League Cup. In my mind it all comes down to depth. If you have a deep squad you can compete across many competitions at the same time, if you don't have a deep squad then you will be exhausted and not about to compete effectively in all of them. Case in point Fulham finished mid table but made the Europa League final, the same thing happened to Pompey when we were playing in the UEFA Cup. I think that we would see better matches in the League, FA Cup, and in Europe if the League Cup was scratched as it overstretches most team, and funny enough affects the confidence of the bigger sides when they are knocked out by minnows. To make it through to the final of a Cup Competition or to stay in the hunt for a league title takes a lot of hard work and focus, full marks to the "Big 5" (Pompey, United, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Spurs in case you forgot) for being able to win something in the last five years, because there are a lot of expensive trophy rooms that haven't had any new additions recently.

Overconfident Americans throw away the Confederations Cup

The US were playing an effective and very ugly 6-2-2 / 5-3-2 in the first half. It was this same style that saw them beat Spain in the semi. They relied on the aerial strength of their defense and inch perfect tackling. I heard people compare them to Greece in 2004, it is not quite true, but the idea was the same. Any errors in their tackling would led to cards, which we saw in their group matches. For offense they rely on set pieces and the counter attack. Against Spain their counter attack looked more like a dump and chase, in the first half of the final they had a more organised counter attack going and it paid dividends. The US had 2 goals in the first half and their defense held the Brasilians to the outside. The US style gifted possession to the Brasilians, and though they were passing much better than the Spanish they didn't cause too many problems for the US.

Which leads me to the title of the post, I don't know why they did it and I hope to hear some explanation from Bob Bradley. They came out for the second half and seemed to have switched from their hybrid 6-2-2/5-3-2 to a 3-3-2-2. This gave the Brasilians a lot more space which they exploited. The US counter attack that had been organised in the first half became the more desperate dump and chase that they resorted to against Spain. The only advantage that this system seemed to afford the Americans was more of the ball if they managed to hold it up in the Brasilian half.

The only thing I can think of is that Bradley thought that switching formations would allow the US to have more of the ball and thus limit Brasil's chances. Implicit with this way of thinking is that the US was good enough to play against Brasil. This is nothing other than overconfidence in the fact that they were up 2-0, or perhaps they believed all of the hype that they had no doubt heard about themselves from the excited US media. Whatever the reason it was a stupid decision. The US looked lost for the entirety of the second half. Compounding the problem was that it only took Brasil one minute to get a goal in the second half. Brasil kept on coming and got a second through Kaka only the ref didn't notice that the ball had crossed the line (and didn't count it). A quick aside here is that on disputed goals the ref should blow their whistle the fourth official watches the replay on a TV and provides the correct decision. As you are no doubt aware Brasil kept coming and won the match 3-2. The US offered no resistance in the second half.

I believe that if the US had stuck with their ugly football through the 6-2-2, they may have won in regulation or forced extra time. The players on the US are not as good as the players on Brasil, but with the formation they started the game with they could have won. Why they changed their formation confounds me. The whole purpose of starting with a formation like the one the US played was to hold out for a draw or possibly grab a goal on the counter attack. So to be up 2-0 would have exceeded their hopes. I am not sure what they discussed at the half, but as far as I can tell they got overconfident and thought they could play the Brasilians. They couldn't and they lost.

In any tournament there is always a lot of talk about teams getting overconfident and looking past opponents. Surprisingly in the final the team that fell guilty to overconfidence was the under dog. They changed their formation and in the process threw away the title, that has got to sting.

Big weekend for Africa - Review

If you weren't able to watch the matches here is what happened. Algeria started things off by traveling to Zambia where they won 2-0. This result really puts the pressure on the other teams in their group. To advance out of Africa it is key to win your home matches and get as many points as you can on the road. With Zambia dropping a home match to Algeria, they now need to beat Egypt in Zambia and try to get road points in Algeria and Rwanda if they are to head to South Africa. Egypt are in a very similar place to Zambia, and will likely be level on points with them once they host the Rwandans on July 5th. They also face travels to Zambia & Rwanda and host the Algerians. Both Egypt & Zambia have a shot at South Africa if they win all of their matches any more slip ups by either team could spell the end of their World Cup dreams. Algeria's next two matches are at home - if they win both of those they stand a strong chance of making the World Cup. In fact a win over the Chipolopolo (Copper Bullets - Zambia) would essentially eliminate Zambia.

Tunisia hosted Nigeria in a big Group B encounter. I watched as much of this as I could and the parts that I saw weren't that exciting it was a hard fought 0-0 draw which doesn't do a lot for either side. Nigeria are still two points back of Tunisia and will be hoping for a victory in their rematch on September the 6th in Nigeria. If Nigeria win that then they are back in with a chance, anything less will rule the Super Eagles out barring a slip up by Tunisia against either of Kenya & Mozambique.

Burkina Faso hosted the Ivory Coast in the other clash of group leaders. This was quite a thrilling encounter with Les Elephants emerging with a 3-2 victory over their hosts. Burkina Faso showed a lot of fight and played well, unfortunately for them to have a chance at qualifying now they have to win in the Ivory Coast. The one thing that could drastically change the fortunes of the Ivory Coast is that their coach is talking about leaving. He has been linked with Portsmouth as well as clubs in France and Germany. As we saw with Uganda changing coaches can have a big effect on a team's performances.

South Africa managed to advance to the semi final of the Confederations Cup thanks to New Zealand holding Iraq to a draw. While Egypt collapsed against the United States 3-0. With Brazil beating Italy by the same score the Pharaohs only needed to lose by 2 to advance. Even with the Pharaohs bowing out of the Confederations Cup it was a good weekend for African football.

And yes the Springboks manhandled the Lions 26-21 in Durban. Test two goes on Saturday (9am Eastern) from Loftus for any Rugby fans out there.

Asian World Cup Qualifying - The Road to South Africa 2010

There are 370 days to go before the World Cup kicks off in South Africa. The Asians will be the second region to finish their qualifying schedule. If you are curious Oceania finished theirs quite some time ago with New Zealand emerging as the top team. New Zealand will face off against the 5th place Asian team in October. In twelve days time we will know the identity of four teams representing Asia. Asian qualifying has two groups each of five teams the two top teams from each group will advance. The two third placed teams will have a playoff and the winner of that playoff will meet New Zealand in October.

The teams competing in Group One are Australia (13 points), Japan (11 points), Bahrain (7 points), Uzbekistan (4 points), & Qatar (4 points). Australia & Iran both have three matches remaining while the other teams have two. Australia need to get only a point from their match against Qatar tomorrow. The Qataris will hope to use home field advantage to keep their hopes of third place alive, however the Socceroos should manage at least a point to become the first country to qualify for the World Cup. Looks like their decision to switch conferences has paid off. Japan face the difficult task of traveling to Uzbekistan, who drew them in Japan, for their next match. Because of this I think that the Uzbeks will get a win postponing Japanese qualification until they host Qatar on the 10th of June. I think that Japan will defeat Qatar which means that Japan can book their ticket to South Africa, while Qatar is eliminated from the World Cup. The battle for third is between Bahrain & Uzbekistan and they play a crucial match on the 17th of June in Bahrain this match will determine which of these teams advances to the playoff. I think that it will be Uzbekistan that emerges from this group in third.

Group Two features South Korea (11 points), North Korea (10 points), Saudi Arabia (10 points), Iran (7 points), & United Arab Emirates (1 point). The South Koreans & the Iranians both have three matches remaining while the other sides have two. The Emirates are already eliminated from qualifying. Due to the congestion of the teams at the top no team can secure qualification from the round of matches on June 6th. However I am backing the Taeguk Warriors of South Korea to qualify at home to Saudi Arabia on the 10th. I think that the North Koreans will secure their berth in South Africa away to the Saudis on the final day. You may have noticed that I don't have the Saudis winning either of their remaining matches, which is why I think that Iran will just pip them for the playoff place.

So the playoff will be between Iran & Uzbekistan. Playoffs can go either way, but I think that the surprising Uzbeks will continue their great run and advance to face New Zealand. In the playoff for the World Cup spot, I feel that the edge has to go to the Asian side. However if the Kiwis are able to advance to the second round of the Confederations Cup, I think that they will be confident that they can advance. That said I think that I am still going to have to pick Uzbekistan to join the Koreas, Japan, & Australia in South Africa.

Hopefully I will get the European preview up later today, Cheers

African World Cup Qualifying - The Road to South Africa 2010

Welcome back for another look at World Cup qualifying, in case you forgot the World Cup is only 370 days away. African qualifying is only one game in to the second and final round, and it is going to get very interesting. There are five groups of four teams, the winner of each group gets a place in the World Cup. The first, second, and third place teams all qualify for the African Cup of Nations in Angola in January 2010.

Group One consists of Gabon, Togo, Morocco, & Cameroon. This group had some strange results on the first day when both Cameroon and Morocco lost. Cameroon lost away to Togo, while Morocco lost at home to Gabon. This sets up a very tight race for the World Cup place, I think it will be a two horse race between Gabon & Cameroon, with Togo grabbing the other place in Angola. This will be a big disappointment for Morocco who would have entered qualifying believing that they had a shot to make it to South Africa. The deciding matches will be the home and home series between neighbours Cameroon & Gabon. In the end I think that the Indomitable Lions of Cameroon will make their return to the World Cup.

Group Two has Tunisia, Mozambique, Nigeria, & Kenya. Much like Group One this group had a bit of an upset in the first match day with Nigeria only managing a draw away to Mozambique. The race for top spot in this group is only between Nigeria & Tunisia. Kenya should beat Mozambique to the other place in the Cup of Nations despite Mozambique's strong first result. For me the key to this group is consistency, Tunisia certainly aren't the best team in the group but they are the most consistent which is why I am predicting more heart break for the Super Eagles and their fans as Nigeria miss out on the World Cup.

Group Three features back to back African Champions Egypt, along with Zambia, Algeria & Rwanda. All of the first round matches ended in a draw, which is bad news for the Pharaohs given that they hosted Zambia in their first match. The next matches are key to the outcome of this group. Egypt travels to Algeria ahead of their trip to South Africa for the Confederations Cup. And they need to have three points in the bag, if they want to go to South Africa again next year. By the same token Zambia needs to get all three points at home against Rwanda to put pressure on the favoured Egyptians. If Algeria wins at home they have a shot at South Africa, and this easily becomes a three way battle. Rwanda will finish fourth and whichever team they take points off of will be in trouble. I think that Zambia will make their first trip to the World Cup in 2010, ahead of Egypt and Algeria. The Chipolopolo Boys have been playing extremely well under their new coach and I expect that to continue throughout qualifying.

Group Four is where we find Ghana, Sudan, Mali, & Benin. The next two games are crucial for Ghana as they play their two strongest opponents away. That means trips to Mali & Sudan if the Black Stars manage 4 points there then I think that they will book themselves a place in South Africa. This group is more of a three way battle for the remaining two Cup of Nations places. I think that Mali and Sudan will grab those in a hard fought battle.

Group Five is home to the West African showdown (and Malawi) with Côte d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast), Guinea, Burkina Faso, & Malawi. Malawi qualified for the second round on the strength of their home form knocking of Egypt, Djibouti, & DR Congo if they are going to get anything out of this group they will need that form to continue, as you may have guessed I don't think that is going to happen. Anyone of Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, or Burkina Faso could qualify for South Africa. What it comes down to for me is that both Guinea & Burkina Faso will be up for their matches with their neighbour Côte d'Ivoire and will take some points from Les Elephants. Which means I think that it will be Burkina Faso advancing just ahead of Côte d'Ivoire & Guinea.

In summary I have Cameroon, Tunisia, Zambia, Ghana, & Burkina Faso joining with host nation South Africa as the six African nations vying to win the first World Cup in Africa.

I am interested to hear what you think , drop me a line and let me now what you think of my predictions. The next preview post will look at Asian Qualifying which wraps up in June. I will endeavour to get this post and the European preview up before the matches on Saturday. It is starting to get quite interesting in Asia & Europe as by the end of next week we could have some teams qualified for South Africa 2010!

Portsmouth's next boss

Now that Portsmouth have been bought by Dr. Sulaiman Al Fahim, a billionaire businessman from Abu Dhabi, there is no shortage of managers being linked with the vacant post.

The first candidate is current interim boss Paul Hart. The players responded to him and he led us away from the relegation zone. However the results weren't spectacular and the team seemed unable to score, it was however an improvement over Tony Adams. So far both Kanu & Distin have said that they would like him to stay on. I think that the most likely scenario is that Paul Hart will return to being in charge of the youth players as Dr. Sulaiman Al Fahim has an interest in developing the academy.

The second candidate is former Lazio, England, Man City, & Mexico boss Sven-Goran Eriksson. Eriksson has been a solid club manager and in my opinion was unlucky to be dumped out of Manchester City at the end of last season. That said he is currently looking for work since being fired by Mexico after it started to look like El Tri could miss the World Cup.

The third candidate is current Croatian boss Slaven Bilić. Bilić is young and came to managerial fame by leading Croatia to Euro 2008 at the expense of England. That said I was unimpressed by his choice of playing Niko Kranjcar as a striker to accommodate Luka Modric in the midfield during the Euros. It is always a risk to appoint a manager without any club experience. Hopefully, if he gets the job, he will be like Mark Hughes or Gianfranco Zola who both made successful club management debuts in the Premier League.

I was surprised to see that a fourth candidate might be Harry Redknapp! This move would be a disaster. Harry quit us and moved to Southampton and then we brought him back. I thought it was a bad idea and it took a long time to get used to the idea of him being our manager again. Then Harry quit us again for Spurs, if we brought him back again it would make a mockery of all of us as fans. If Pompey are foolish enough to offer him the job I hope that he has enough sense not to come back.

A fifth candidate has now emerged, the former Fiorentina & Inter Milan boss Roberto Mancini. He has wealth of club experience and trophies to his name. He was sacked by Inter after winning a third straight Serie A title because of his failure to win the Champions League. I think that he would be an excellent hire.

I imagine that Portsmouth will announce who will be charge sometime in the next few weeks and I have no idea who it will be but I would guess that it would be either Mancini, Eriksson or Bilić. Though as we have seen with Harry moving to Spurs and Bruce moving to Sunderland it really could be anyone.

Confederations Cup Pool

Well looking at the poll results it seems that no agreed with my pick of New Zealand to advance along with Spain and most people went with Iraq. The Iraq - New Zealand match will be the key match in the group. Which brings me to the title of this post Confederations Cup Pool, it is an opportunity to battle wits and see who can predict the outcome of the matches.

Not too long ago I was introduced to SuperBru by a friend. SuperBru is a South African pool manager that runs pools for Super XIV Rugby, The Indian Premier League (Cricket), F1, and football, namely the Confederations Cup. I have started a pool there and you invited to join. Here is the information:

Website: http://www.superbru.com/confedcup
Pool code: votepale
Pool name: PompeyCanuck′s Pool

If you don't know much about the Confederations Cup you can read my preview, that way you should know what I know or at least what I think.

Unfortunately there are no prizes other than to say "I kicked Pompey's ass" or "at least I am as smart as I pretend to be" so I hope that I will see you there,

Cheers & Good Luck

Thoughts on the Champions League Final

United came out flying for the first 8 minutes and Barcelona looked a little lost, for the next 82 minutes Barcelona were in absolute total control.

I think that Park was definitely the man of the match for United - he was the only player in white that was putting in any effort. If he was a step quicker (or had longer legs) and could jump higher (or was taller) he would have had two goals, which leads me to believe that Crouch would have scored twice...

I don't have a man of the match for Barcelona - It was a victory for teamwork everyone worked hard and made good passes, without a doubt a great display from the best team in the world.

What I didn't like, 3 dives When Ronaldo leapt at Pique to draw a yellow from Pique, When Iniesta collapsed at the top of box to draw a free kick, it was disgraceful and when Puyol dove when Ronaldo got the ball.

I was surprised that throughout the match United kept attacking Puyol, in the lead up to the match there was a lot of talk about whether or not Sylvinho could deal with the pace but he was never tested.

I thought that Evra was playing too central and Barcelona kept having plenty of space on the right. Though I did think that Ferguson made the right move in bringing on Tevez at half time and moving Rooney to the right to have a go at Sylvinho, unfortunately these moves ended up not having an impact on Barcelona's domination.

United passing was poor, but Barcelona fiercely attacked loose balls, by the second half they had stopped being 50/50s and started being Barcelona possessions.

I think that Ferguson should have taken Ronaldo off after his aerial challenge with Puyol in the 62 min, his head was out of the game. After the Messi's goal Rooney seemed to stop running all together it was a disappointing lack of effort. United seemed to not have any stomach for the comeback.

Barcelona dominated the match so thoroughly that I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear about some food poisoning scandal etc to try to explain why United looked so slow out there.

I also have to mention that the dummy by Henry in the 50somethingth minute was one of the best that I have ever seen.

And as Kristian Jack pointed out in his blog if you were a football fan you watched the match with a smile on your face as Barcelona put on a wonderful display of the beautiful game.

Champions League Final

Are you ready for some football!?

Today is the biggest club match in the World. Luckily for football fans we have arguably the two best teams in the World competing in the final, the English Champions Manchester United and the Spanish Champions Barcelona. Both teams have players suspended for the final, with United missing midfielder Fletcher and Barcelona without both of their regular full backs Alves & Abidal. It is certain to be a great game. If you would like to read more about the build up to the final then I suggest you check out The Canadian Stretford End where Sam has done a lot more research into this final than I have. If you are looking for more then why don't you head over to the BBC live text which has been running since I woke up this morning. There are also a lot of articles that you can find links to from The Score's Footy Blog.

My prediction is for a 3-2 Barcelona Victory, Sam at the Canadian Stretford End predicted 3-0 for United. What are your predictions?

CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying - The Road to South Africa 2010

With the World Cup now only 380 days away it is time to look at the qualifying situation in CONCACAF. For those of you who don't know CONCACAF is the North America, Central America, and Caribbean qualifying zone. At present the United States are leading the group with 7 points from three matches. The only real anomaly is Mexico who are currently sitting in fourth place with 3 points from 3 matches. Their next match will be their first without Swedish Coach Sven-Goran Eriksson, who I think it is fair to say enjoyed a less than stellar reign as Mexico boss. With Mexico currently sitting in a play-off place they will look to catch Costa Rica & Honduras who are sitting above them with 6 & 4 points respectively. There are also two teams on two points: El Salvador who are a bit of an upset to make it this far, and FIFA Vice President Jack Warner's Trinidad & Tobago. I did my best to try to forget that Jack Warner was associated with T & T when I was predicting the matches. Unfortunately for fans of the Soca Warriors and El Salvador I see them remaining the bottom two teams. I also think that Mexico will rediscover their form under new leadership and I have them winning the group, followed by Honduras, and the United States. That puts Costa Rica in the playoff against Ecuador and I think that the South Americans will take the playoff and go to South Africa.

In case you wanted to laugh how wrong I was 9 months ago when I predicted what would happen I had Mexico, Canada (oops), & the USA advancing with Cuba (oops again) in the playoff spot ahead of Costa Rica & El Salvador. Next up in the Qualifying Preview Tour is Africa.

Confederations Cup Preview

The Confederations Cup gets underway in 3 weeks and there are few interesting things about this tournament. Obviously the looming match up of Italy and Brazil in the group being one of the matches to watch. The story that I am most interested in however is who will advance along with Spain from Group A, in fact I have even added a poll to see what you think.

The groups in this tournament are quite lopsided in Group A we have the European Champions Spain, the Asian Champions Iraq, the Oceanic Champions New Zealand (Australia is now considered an Asian Country if you were wondering what happened to them) and the Hosts South Africa. In Group B we find the World Champions Italy, the North American & Caribbean Champions USA, the South American Champions Brazil, and the African Champions Egypt.

I have no doubt that Spain will be top of Group A. The question is which team will join them? It could really be any of the three. South Africa has been very poor of late, if you haven't been following, they lost out of the World Cup Qualifying (which doubled as African Cup of Nations Qualifying which is why they were participating) and thus will miss the African Cup of Nations in Angola. This is a huge blow as it means that the Confederation Cup are their only competitive matches until the World Cup. In a similar position is New Zealand they have already won the Oceania World Cup qualifying and await a playoff opponent from Asia in October. It has been a long time since New Zealand has played some strong opponents and making it out of this group will give them a lot of confidence going into their playoff match up. Iraq were unlucky to not advance to the final round of the World Cup qualifying. They will be focused on this tournament as a chance to brighten spirits back home, much the same way that their victory in Asia did.

I have been thinking about this for some time, and I keep switching between Iraq and New Zealand as the team to advance with Spain, conveniently for us football fans they meet in the final group game that is likely to decide who progresses to the next stage. But seeing as how I should pick someone I will stick with my gut and go with New Zealand.

Group B is also a bit difficult to figure out as Brazil and Egypt haven't been too consistent of late. To illustrate this point Brazil drew 0-0 with Bolivia in World Cup Qualifying. What is that you say it was the Altitude? Nope it must have been the attitude as the match was in Brazil! Egypt seems to have two different teams, the team that dominates in the African Cup of Nations and the team that doesn't get results anywhere else. Sadly for fans of the Pharaohs this will be another disappointing tournament as I think that Egypt will be the whipping boy of Group B and return to Cairo with 0 points. The way I see it unfolding for the rest of the teams is a draw between Italy and the US, Brazil beating the Americans, and Brazil and Italy battling to a draw. This means that Italy and Brazil advance to the semis.

In the Semis I have Spain playing Italy in another great match up, I see the Spaniards advancing to the final. The other semi pits New Zealand against Brazil, this is the end of the road for New Zealand (if New Zealand pull off a shock here it would likely be the end of the road for Dunga) setting up a great Spain - Brazil final.

In the final I think that Spain will win and cement themselves as the favourites to win next summer at the World Cup.

South America World Cup Qualifying - The Road to South Africa 2010

With 384 days to go until the World Cup kicks off, and only a few weeks before the next round of Qualifying matches it is high time for an update. In South America there are only 6 matches left, meaning that two thirds of the campaign is already behind us. Which ever 'Guay' you slice it there is some exciting football ahead. South American teams qualify through one table which operates like a ten team league. The top four teams qualify for South Africa and the fifth team enters a playoff against the fourth place CONCACAF side. Paraguay are leading group at the moment with Brazil, Chile, and Argentina occupying the rest of the automatic places. Uruguay currently have the playoff place. If you are interested the complete table can be found here. There are a lot of interesting matches remaining such as Argentina - Brazil or any team at Bolivia. Brazil have quite a difficult run in compared to some of the other teams. That said I see the current top four remaining the top four after the last match, with a few teams changing places. The real battle will be for fifth place with Ecuador, Uruguay, & Colombia. Anything could happen, looking at the fixtures it is easy to see what the outcome could be, but the reason that we watch the games is because that rarely occurs. My latest prediction sees Ecuador winning a decisive home match against Uruguay on October 10, that is enough to secure the playoff spot. To summarize I have Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil, & Chile advancing to the World Cup with Ecuador in a playoff against a CONCACAF opponent that they will beat. When I made my first predictions nine months ago I had Argentina, Brazil, Chile, & Colombia advancing with Paraguay in the playoff. I thought that Colombia was playing well, but the wheels have fallen off for them, and I thought that Paraguay would slow down, but they have kept up the pace. I am looking forward to seeing how this plays out. For the next update we are heading North to look at CONCACAF and find out who Ecuador's playoff opponents will be.

World Cup Qualifying – The Road to South Africa 2010

In 657 days, the World Cup will kick off in Africa for the first time. Qualifying is presently underway in all the regions though only two European teams have played thus far. There have already been some significant upsets: defending Asian Champion Iraq was bounced out of qualifying by a surprising Qatar, and China was also victims of the same group. In North and Central America and the Caribbean (CONCACAF), Panama, who was ranked #60 in the world at the time, was sent packing by El Salvador.

That brings us to where we are today: Africa will have 6 teams in the competition for the first time, Europe will have 13 teams, Asia will have 4.5, Oceania 0.5, CONCAF 3.5, and South America 4.5. How does a region get represented by half a team? Each region that is represented by half a team will meet another such region in a playoff for a place at the World Cup; thus Asia will play Oceania and CONCACAF will play South America.

Here is a look at the current group standings, who is likely to advance, and a few picks for potential upsets.

Africa

African qualifying is already most of the way through the first stage that will narrow the field from 47 teams down to 20. The winner of each of the 12 groups along with the 8 best second place teams will advance to the next stage. So far Nigeria is the only team to secure a berth in the next round. There is some complicated math involved in this group, as Eritrea dropped out of the competition right before it started, leaving one group with only 3 teams. This means for calculating the 8 best second place teams, the points gained against the worst team in the group will not be counted. A new complication is that Ethiopia has been suspended by FIFA (football’s governing body) for failing to follow a plan to bring actions taken by the Ethiopian Football Federation (EFF) in line with FIFA regulations. At the moment it is not clear what effect this will have on qualifying.

Group 1 – Cameroon, Cape Verde, Mauritius, and Tanzania
Cameroon are the big favourite to win this group, and they appear to be on their way to doing it. They had a surprise 0-0 draw at Tanzania, but I think that will be their only slip-up in this stage. Cape Verde have been the best of the rest, beating Mauritius and Tanzania. I see them making it to the next stage as a second place team, with Tanzania third and Mauritius last.

Group 2 – Guinea, Kenya, Namibia, and Zimbabwe
Guinea are the favourites in this group. However, through 4 matches it is much closer than anyone in Guinea would like, with their team suffering a loss at Kenya and a draw with Zimbabwe. Kenya have turned Nairobi into a fortress by winning both home matches there. Their road form needs some help if they are going to progress. This was a tough one to pick - I am going with Guinea to get some results and advance as the group winners, Kenya to progress as a second place team, Zimbabwe to place third and Namibia fourth.

Group 3 – Angola, Benin, Niger, Uganda
Angola were the favourites in this group, having qualified for the last World Cup. However they currently find themselves sitting in second place behind Benin. Uganda beat Angola at home then drew with them in Angola - these performances have the Ugandans tied with Angola in second place. Niger have lost all of their matches and that doesn’t look like it will change. Benin are in the driver’s seat playing both Angola and Uganda in their last two matches, knowing if they win they are in, but if they draw both of their games, all three teams will end up tied for first place, and the team that progresses will be based off of their goal difference. Benin currently have the best goal difference at +4. However with both Angola and Uganda still to play Niger, that could change. The way I see it is that Angola will beat Benin in Benin, and Uganda will manage at least a draw with them in Kampala, meaning Angola win the group and Uganda advance as a second place team. Yet there is another piece of news that could dramatically affect the outcome of this group: a Scottish club, Hearts, have just named the Ugandan boss their new coach - this could spell disaster for the Ugandans.

Group 4 – Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and South Africa
Your first question about this group is probably something along the lines of, “Why is South Africa in the qualifying round?”, given that as hosts they have qualified for the World Cup already. The answer is that the African World Cup qualifying also doubles as the African Cup of Nations qualifying. If South Africa were to qualify for a place in the World Cup, the qualifying spot would simply go to next best team. This is the easiest group of all to predict, as the favoured Nigeria have won all 4 of their matches to date and already qualified for the next stage. South Africa had some poor results so far, and have been strongly criticised in the media for it; ultimately it doesn’t matter where they finish, as I don’t see the second place team from this group advancing. South Africa were coached by Carlos Alberto Parreira, who coached Brazil at the 2006 World Cup, however he resigned for family reasons and returned to Brazil. He was replaced by another Brazilian, Joel Santana. The coaching change hasn’t helped ease the struggles of the Bafana Bafana.

Group 5 – Gabon, Ghana, Lesotho, and Libya
Ghana are the favourites to advance from this group, given the star power on their roster: the likes of Chelsea midfielder Essien and new Inter Milan-signing Muntari. They have dropped a few points so far, but I still see them making it to the next stage as group winners. However, the dropped points by Ghana have made for quite an interesting battle between Ghana, Gabon and Libya. Libya have games against Ghana at home and Gabon away, while Gabon are away to Lesotho and home to Libya. I think that Ghana will win against Libya meaning that Libya will go to Gabon needing a win, which I see them getting. Libya has been playing well and they are my pick to make to the next stage as a second place team, with Gabon third and Lesotho well behind in fourth.

Group 6 – Algeria, Gambia, Liberia, and Senegal
Senegal are heavy favourites to advance from this group. After a terrific run in Korea/Japan 2002, Senegal failed to qualify for the 2006 World Cup in Germany, but the Teranga Lions will be hoping to be back in the big show this time around. Senegal has been disappointing on the road, managing only a draw at both Gambia and Liberia. While they still have to travel to Algeria, and play Gambia at home, I don’t see them dropping any points, and they should advance as group winners. As for second place, there is a good battle going on between Algeria and Gambia; even Liberia are not out of the running yet. Unfortunately for all of these teams, they are taking too many points out of each other, and I don’t see any of these teams advancing to the next stage. That said, I do see Gambia grabbing the second spot, with Algeria third and Liberia fourth.

Group 7 – Botswana, Côte d’Ivoire, Madagascar, and Mozambique
Les Elephants of Côte d’Ivoire are the favourites in this group, with many of the top African footballers on their side, such as Didier Drogba, Salomon Kalou, Kolo Toure, and Didier Zakora. All of these players play their professional football in London with Chelsea, Arsenal, and Tottenham. Much like Senegal in the previous group, Côte d’Ivoire has had some disappointing results, however they seem to have found their form and will easily qualify in first place. This is another tight race for second, with all three teams still in it. Madagascar still have to travel to Côte d’Ivoire and I don’t see them getting any points there; they will likely finish last. Mozambique host Côte d’Ivoire and travel to Botswana. I see them drawing with Botswana and losing to Côte d’Ivoire; this will result in Botswana finishing in second place. However, I don’t see the Zebras (Botswana) having enough points to qualify as a second place team. Mozambique will likely finish in third and Madagascar in fourth.

Group 8 – Ethiopia, Mauritania, Morocco, and Rwanda
Morocco are the favourites to advance and I see them doing it, only I see them advancing on goal difference. That is because Rwanda has been one of the surprises of qualifying, beating Morocco 3-1 in Kigali, en route to a perfect 3-0 start before a loss in Morocco. I think that the Rwandans will keep up the pace and easily qualify as a second place team. Ethiopia has just been banned by FIFA for not solving problems within the EFF, though the EFF is trying to sort this out before the next scheduled match. I don’t see Ethiopia’s troubles affecting the outcome of the group, though. Mauritania have just had a coup, which may result in their remaining home match against Rwanda being played at a neutral venue.

Group 9 – Burkina Faso, Burundi, Seychelles, and Tunisia
Tunisia went into the group as favourites, but that has changed now, as they find themselves in second place behind a Burkina Faso team that is finally reaping the rewards of a solid performance at the 2003 Under-20 World Cup. Burkina Faso have won all of their matches including away to Tunisia. I think that they will advance out of the group with their perfect record intact. Tunisia will cruise into the next round as a second place qualifier. It should be mentioned that the Burundians have played some good football, but faced two much better teams in this group; they will grab third, with the Seychelles finishing in fourth.

Group 10 – Chad, Congo, Mali, and Sudan
Mali are the favourites from this group, and should advance as group winners - their only loss came away to Sudan. After Mali, the group is wide open - so far Chad and Sudan have only played 3 matches. Sudan also qualified for the African Cup of Nations in 2008 and is the second favourite from the group. The home and away matches against Chad are going to be highly charged battles, with the problems of Darfur hanging over them. Darfur is a region in the west of Sudan which borders Chad, and is where militias have been committing genocide, causing hundreds of thousands of people to cross the border into Chad. The Government of Chad had not being saying much publicly until the militias crossed into Chad as well. From a footballing standpoint I see these matches as two draws or possibly they trade victories. I think that Congo have enough talent to grab a win against Sudan in Sudan. This will see them in second just above Sudan. It will not be enough for the Congo to qualify, though, as I don’t see them gaining enough points to advance.

Group 11 – Swaziland, Togo, and Zambia
This was Eritrea’s group, but they withdrew just before the qualifying was to begin. Togo is the favourite, or I should say was the favourite, from this group. Togo were surprise qualifiers for Germany 2006, led by Emmanuel Adebayor, the £30 Million rated striker from Arsenal in the English Premier League. Togo will play no matches in Togo as a result of crowd violence in Lome during the last round of African Cup of Nations Qualifiers. Zambia were expected to give Togo a challenge but after the first match played at a neutral venue, in Accra, Ghana, Togo won 1-0. Then things got interesting: Zambia travelled to Swaziland, a match the Chipololo boys (Zambia) were heavily favoured to win, and it was a draw. Swaziland then followed that up with a shock 1-0 victory over Togo. Togo’s next match is against Zambia in Zambia. This is a huge match in this group. For me, Togo have been a disappointment, and I see Zambia winning the match and moving on as the winners, with Swaziland sneaking a second place spot. The Togolese will likely crash out despite their stunning qualification for the last World Cup.

Group 12 – Congo DR, Djibouti, Egypt, and Malawi
Egypt are the favourites to advance from this group, given that that they are the 2006 & 2008 African Champions. They had to come from behind to beat Congo DR in Egypt, and then suffered a shock defeat at Malawi. They now face the difficult task of travelling to Kinshasa to face Congo DR. I think that the Congolese will manage at least a draw here. If they win, the top spot is theirs, but if it is a draw, it sets up an exciting final day. Egypt are behind on goal difference by 4 and face Djibouti at home, which is a sure win, while the Simbas (Congo DR) travel to Malawi and need a win. What makes it interesting is that Djibouti have one of the leakiest defences, already allowing 23 goals, so Egypt scoring 4 or more goals is not out of the question. Weighing all of the factors, I like the DR Congo to beat Egypt at home and beat Malawi away, winning the group, while Egypt easily qualifies for the next round as a second place team.

African Summary
To summarize, I have Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Cote D’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Mali, Zambia, DR Congo, Guinea, Angola, and Morocco advancing as group winners. Advancing with them will be the 8 best second place teams, which I foresee being Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Egypt, Tunisia, Swaziland, Libya, and Cape Verde. These teams will be drawn into five groups of four teams playing a round robin system, with the winner of each group making the World Cup. There is nothing for second place this time… ok, I lied - the African groups are also the qualifying groups for the African Cup of Nations (ACN) in Angola in 2010. The second and third place teams in each of the groups of four will also qualify for the ACN. Angola, as the hosts, are already in, so the three other teams drawn with Angola (assuming Angola progress, which I predict they will) will automatically qualify for the ACN. It would be a relief to some of the surprise teams like Swaziland, Kenya and Cape Verde to qualify automatically for the ACN, so that they are free to focus on making the World Cup.

Europe

European qualifying gets underway in August, and is the only region that has yet to begin. The draw for groups was made a few months ago. Because the teams were drawn based on older rankings, you may notice that some groups are much more difficult than others. I would prefer to see the draw done after the European Championships and based on the new rankings. All in all there are 13 places up for grabs here, with 8 groups of 6 and 1 group of 5. The group winners all advance to the World Cup, and the 8 best second place teams are play off against each other for the remaining four places.

Group 1 – Albania, Denmark, Hungary, Malta, Portugal, and Sweden
Portugal are the favourites to advance out of this group, but anything can and does happen in qualifying. Portugal are aware of this, having qualified for the European Championships second in their group behind Poland. Portugal will be going into the qualifying with a new coach, as Scolari has left to join Chelsea. His replacement is Carlos Quiroz, former Real Madrid Manager and Manchester United Assistant. How this will affect their form, I don’t know. I do see them winning this group and qualifying for the World Cup, though. Second place in this group is wide open. Sweden, Denmark, and Hungary are all capable of grabbing it. I think that Albania will be the spoilers, getting a few results, but not enough to nab second, and Malta are along for the ride. Sweden are in a period of overhaul, as a number of players are announcing their retirement from international competition. Sweden will rely heavily on the scoring of Inter Milan Striker Zlatan Imbrahimovich. It is a difficult choice to make, but I see Denmark emerging from the fray as the second place team, with Sweden third, Hungary fourth, Albania fifth, and Malta sixth.

Group 2 – Greece, Israel, Latvia, Luxembourg, Moldova, and Switzerland
Greece are supposed to be the favourites in this group, but after their performance at the Euros, where they lost every match and were the only team not to register a point, it is difficult to count them as favourites. This group is the main reason why I think the qualifying draw should be made later - if you look at the FIFA rankings before Euro 2008, Greece are #8, but when you look at it after they are #18. While #18 isn’t bad, 6 of the 9 groups include two teams that are both better than #18! Anything could really happen in this group. Switzerland are a solid team that doesn’t score too often. They didn’t allow a goal in the last World Cup, and lost on penalties to Ukraine in the round of 16. At Euro 2008, they were unlucky to lose against Turkey, and beat the Portugal B team. The Swiss are another team going into the qualifying campaign with a new head coach. This group is a great chance for Israel to make the World Cup - they finished right behind England in the difficult Euro 2008 qualifying group that included Croatia and Russia. I think that Israel will seize the opportunity and win the group, with Greece, Moldova, and Switzerland fighting it out for second. Latvia, who qualified for Euro 2004, will be the spoilers stealing points, while Luxembourg will end up being tourists - they should enjoy the history of Greece & Israel, the mountains and valleys of Switzerland…. I think that Greece will rediscover some of the form that led them to the top of Europe in 2004 and get second place. Switzerland will be in third, Moldova in fourth, Latvia in fifth, and Luxembourg in sixth.

Group 3 – Czech Republic, Northern Ireland, Poland, San Marino, Slovakia, and Slovenia
The Czech Republic are the favourites in this group, but they are another team that, like Sweden, is going through a roster transition. Petr Rada is the new head coach for the Czechs, replacing Karel Bruckner. The Czech Republic have faltered in qualifying before, missing the World Cup in all but their last attempt, despite being ranked highly. Poland are the looking good for second place; they had some injury problems in the most recent Euros, but also the emergence of some new talent. Northern Ireland is the team that strikes fear into the hearts of opponents. David Healy, the top goal scorer of the Euro 2008 qualifying, led Northern Ireland to a dramatic victory in Belfast over Spain, the winners of Euro 2008 and the top-ranked team in the world. On their day they can beat anyone, but the question remains - how often will it be their day? Unfortunately, I see them making another dramatic push for qualification only to fall short again. Czech Republic to win, Poland to finish second, Northern Ireland in third, Slovakia in fourth, Slovenia in fifth, and San Marino in sixth.

Group 4 – Azerbaijan, Finland, Germany, Liechtenstein, Russia, and Wales
This is the first of two groups that pit Euro 2008 semi-finalists against each other. Germany go into this group as the favourite - they have a lot of young players that have performed well for them. Russia are the new kid on the block; under Guus Hiddink they have seen a significant raise in the level of their play. Russia were surprise semi-finalists at Euro 2008, upsetting the Netherlands in the quarters. They look likely to continue improving. Wales and Finland are in the same boat: they are always on the outside looking in. Wales are coming off a disappointing Euro 2008 qualifying, finishing 5th in their group, while Finland looked good finishing in a tie for third and only 3 points shy of qualifying. I think that they are both tough to qualify from this group. I believe that Russia will emerge as the team to beat and win the group, with the Germans finishing in second, Wales in third, Finland in fourth, Azerbaijan in fifth, and Liechtenstein in sixth.

Group 5 – Armenia, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Estonia, Spain, and Turkey
Here is the second group featuring two of the semi-finalists from Euro 2008. Newly crowned European Champions and World #1 Spain are heavy favourites to win this group and qualify for the World Cup, though they will be doing it with a yet-to-be-named new coach after the resignation of Luis Aragones. Turkey found a way to win in the European Championships, usually in the final seconds, shocking the Czechs, Croatians, and nearly the Germans. They have kept Fatih Terim on as coach, and he should have the players ready to continue their success. This group is very much a two horse race with the other teams fighting it out for third. It is difficult to imagine Spain not winning this group… in fact I can’t do it, and thus am picking them to advance to the World Cup as group winners, with Turkey in second place. A point of interest is that former Spanish coach Aragones has taken over Turkish club side Fernerbache - I wonder if he will give his new charges some tips on beating the Spanish? Stats are not in the Spanish court either, with the European Champions always having difficulty in the following World Cup: 1992 European Champs Denmark failed to qualify in 1994; then in 2002, France, champions from 2000, failed to make it out of the group stage; Greece followed by failing to qualify in 2006. Germany managed to buck the trend in 1998, as they made it to the Quarter Finals. For Turkey, the match to watch is Turkey and Armenia, as the countries do not officially recognize each other and have no diplomatic relations. Armenia is upset that Turkey has never recognized or apologized for the genocide of Armenians. In fact, this has been a point of tension between Turkey and other countries such as the USA and France, who have made official statements about the genocide.

Group 6 – Andorra, Belarus, Croatia, England, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine
This group sees a rematch between England and Croatia. England are keen on revenge as Croatia eliminated them from the Euro 2008 qualifying at Wembley. Another interesting match up is England and Kazakhstan, this being entirely fuelled by British comedian Sacha Baron Cohen and his portrayal of a fictional Kazakh reporter named Borat. This was not well received in Kazakhstan, so I am more interested in what happens off the pitch than on it in this one. Ukraine, who attended the last World Cup, are in a tough position to make it to South Africa; for that to happen they are going to need a lot of production out of their strikers, Shevchenko and Voronin, both of whom are warming benches at Chelsea and Liverpool, respectively. Belarus are another side that are improving, but I don’t think that they have improved enough to give Croatia or England any problems. New English coach Fabio Capello has been sorting out a lot of the problems that plagued the squad under Steve McLaren, so I see England winning the group and Croatia finishing in second, with Ukraine third, Belarus fourth, Kazakhstan fifth, and Andorra sixth.

Group 7 – Austria, Faroe Islands, France, Lithuania, Romania, and Serbia
France should be the favourites in this group, which I am voting as the most boring group in World Cup Qualifying. Austria, Faroe Islands, and Lithuania shouldn’t give anyone any problems. Under the leadership of the recently not fired Raymond Domenach, France go up against ultra-defensive Romania and ultra-defensive Serbia. Domenach is well known for his belief in astrology: not picking some players for France’s disastrous Euro 2008 campaign because they had the wrong star sign, and then blaming their exit on the hotel layout. I had picked France to win the group under the leadership of the new coach, but with Domenach still in charge I am struggling to put them second. I see Romania winning the group, and France narrowly beating Serbia to finish second. I think that there is enough talent in the French players to overcome Domenach and his craziness. Also I have Austria fourth, Lithuania fifth, and Faroe Islands in sixth.

Group 8 – Bulgaria, Cyprus, Georgia, Ireland, Italy, and Montenegro
Italy are the favourites in this group, and have Marcello Lippi back at the helm. Lippi, of course, was in charge of Italy when they won the last World Cup. They face an improving Bulgarian side led by soon-to-be former Tottenham Hotspur Striker (depending on which paper you read) Dimitar Berbatov, and a strong Ireland squad led by former Tottenham Hotspur Striker Robbie Keane. I think that we can safely rule out Cyprus, Georgia, and Montenegro from contention. Italy have stumbled a bit lately, and the poor form at Euro 2008 cost coach Roberto Donadoni his job. The problem with the Azzuri is that the next wave of talent hasn’t been able to fill the gaps left by some of the departing veterans. Italy should use the qualifying period to get these players comfortable in the side. I think that this will be one of the tightest races: I have Bulgaria finishing first and Italy sneaking in at second with Ireland missing out. Georgia’s conflict with Russia has caused the cancellation of a UEFA Cup qualifying match and will likely cause some disruption to the match schedule - some of Georgia’s home matches may end up being played in neutral venues. I think that this will have the greatest impact on Georgia, whom I had in fifth, but I now have them finishing last behind Cyprus in fourth, and Montenegro in fifth.

Group 9 – Iceland, Netherlands, Norway, Macedonia, and Scotland
Netherlands are the favourites in this group, especially after the way that they performed in the “group of death” at Euro 2008 - total football could be on its way back. Coach Marco van Basten has left to take the reins at Ajax of Amsterdam, and a new coach has yet to be named. Scotland are expected to offer the most resistance, having given World Cup finalists France and Italy a run for their money in Euro 2008 qualifying, but it is a wide open group - of all of the groups this one has the most parity. I see the Netherlands advancing as winners and Scotland taking second place, with Norway in third, Iceland in fourth, and Macedonia in fifth.

European Summary
Ok, I have Portugal, Israel, Czech Republic, Russia, Spain, England, France, Bulgaria, and the Netherlands qualifying for the World Cup as group winners. Denmark, Greece, Poland, Germany, Turkey, Croatia, Romania, Italy and Scotland will fight it out amongst themselves as second place teams. One of the second place teams will miss out and the other 8 will play each for a place in the World Cup. This could offer some thrilling matches - can you imagine Germany against Italy for a spot in the finals? What a shame it would be to not have both these great teams at the World Cup, but what an exciting playoff that would be!

Asia

This brings us to Asia, the land of upsets, where the 2007 Asian champions, Iraq, have already been sent packing along with China. The focus of this final stage of Asian qualifying has to be the presence of the small nations from the Arabian Peninsula: Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates. They have been playing some good football to date, and are deservedly in the last ten teams. These ten teams are divided into two groups, with the top two teams from each group qualifying for the World Cup. The two third place teams will play each other in a playoff, the winner of which will take on the Oceanic Champions for a spot in the World Cup. In case you missed it, after the last World Cup Australia joined the Asian Football Conference.

Group 1 – Australia, Bahrain, Japan, Uzbekistan, and Qatar
Japan is the top ranked team in Asia at the moment, but I am worried about them in this group. They had some disappointing results on the Arabian Gulf, losing in Bahrain and drawing in Oman. With two of their opponents from that region, Japan are going to have to find a way to get results in the Gulf if they want to make it out of this group. That is something that I don’t think the Aussies will have a problem doing; they have been playing well, though a side filled with reserves was defeated by China in the last round. I see the Aussies winning the group and making their second straight World Cup. Uzbekistan have had a strong campaign thus far, suffering only one away defeat to Saudi Arabia. It remains to be seen how they will deal with teams like Japan and Australia, or how those teams will deal with travelling to Uzbekistan. I think that the fight for second place will be between the Japanese and the Uzbeks, with Qatar in 4th and Bahrain in 5th. I was impressed by the Uzbeks in the last stage and I think they have what it takes to knock Japan into third.

Group 2 – Iran, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North), Republic of Korea (South), Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates
Iran, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea are the teams to beat in this group. It will be a big upset if North Korea or U.A.E. qualify. I think that South Korea and North Korea will draw both of the matches between them just as they did in the previous qualifying round and in most of the matches that I can recall between them. If South Korea are able to get a result from one of these games, then I see the Taeguk Warriors winning the group; if they are both draws, as I predict, then I have South Korea advancing in second place behind Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia are playing well at the moment and I see them making it back to the World Cup for the fifth time in a row. I think that Iran will draw too many matches and end up in 3rd place, setting up an exciting playoff with Japan. North Korea will finish 4th, with UAE in the last spot. Frankly, I think UAE will be lucky to get more than a few points in this group.

Asian Summary
I have Australia, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea advancing to the World Cup, with Japan and Iran competing for the playoff spot against the winners of Oceania. I think that Japan will emerge as the Asian playoff team and most likely defeat the team from Oceania, but in a playoff anything can happen.

Oceania

Fiji, New Caledonia, New Zealand, and Vanuatu
This region was dominated by Australia for a long time, so with their departure for Asia, this is a big chance for another team to have a shot at the World Cup. Oceania is down to a two team race: New Zealand and New Caledonia. New Zealand currently have a one-point lead and a game in hand (at home to Fiji) over New Caledonia. These two teams will meet in a home and home series to decide who gets to playoff against the Asian team for a spot in the World Cup. New Caledonia have to win both matches to make it, assuming that New Zealand beat Fiji and there is no reason to believe that won’t happen. I think that New Caledonia will beat New Zealand at home to set up a tense match in New Zealand in October. I am going to go with the long shot: I see the Caledonians beating the All Whites to advance to the playoff against the Asian team.

CONCACAF

This brings us to the Americas - we will work our way from North to South. In CONCACAF, we see the first ever qualifying group featuring teams that have all made an appearance in the World Cup. This is group 2, the most difficult of the CONCACAF groups. There are three groups of 4, with the top two teams in each advancing to the final round, in which the top three teams will advance to the World Cup and the fourth place team will be in a playoff against a South American team.

Group 1 – Cuba, Guatemala, Trinidad & Tobago, and the United States of America
USA are heavy favourites in this group, and I see them having no problem qualifying for the next phase. After that, this group gets interesting. T & T should be the favourites, but they were very nearly eliminated in the last phase by minnows Bermuda. With star striker Kenwyne Jones currently out with a knee injury until October, they could be in tough against the other teams. T & T definitely have the quality, but have not been playing up to their potential. To make matters worse, they are up against Cuba and Guatemala in their first two matches where they are likely to still be without Jones. I think that Cuba have enough talent to make it through as a second place team, sending the Soca Warriors and Guatemala home.

Group 2 – Canada, Honduras, Jamaica, and Mexico
This is a group that should have CONCACAF officials rethinking the way that they set up qualifying groups. This group has three teams ranked higher than every team in Group 3, and three teams ranked higher than three teams in Group 1. That is because three of the top five teams in CONCACAF are all in the same group. This group is a three-way race between these teams: Mexico, Honduras, and Canada. Jamaica are certain to be the also-rans in this group. Mexico are the big favourites to advance and it would be a huge shock if they didn’t. They have brought in former England manager Sven Goran Erikson to lead the team, and as there are no quarter finals or penalties as a part of the group stage, I see Sven’s new team qualifying. This brings the fight for the second spot to Canada and Honduras. Canada need to find some consistency in their game if they are to advance. They played fantastically against Brazil in a friendly and then followed that up with a 2-2 draw against Panama, but prior to the match with Brazil, Canada had slumped to two 2-0 defeats against Estonia and South Africa. Canada need the team that gave Brazil a run for their money to show up for qualifying or it will be another failed qualifying campaign. Honduras have been impressive in their run up to this stage, except for the last match at Puerto Rico, where the Islanders held them to a 2-2 draw. These two teams need to get wins against Jamaica, and as many points as they can from Mexico, and of course from each other. In the end, I am predicting that Canada will progress to the next stage with a slim margin over Honduras, putting Jamaica in fourth.

Group 3 – Costa Rica, El Salvador, Haiti, and Suriname
This group contains the only teams to pull off an upset in the last phase: El Salvador knocked out CONCACAF’s #4 team Panama, while Suriname beat neighbours Guyana. Similar to the USA in Group 1, Costa Rica should advance without too much difficulty. That said, they had their own problems with Grenada in the last phase, but they were able to get things together for the second leg. Costa Rica will win this group. In the battle for the second spot, I don’t think that the Haitians will mount a big challenge here - for me it is down to the underdogs from the last round, El Salvador and Suriname. It could really go either way here, but I am tipping El Salvador to advance to the next stage.

CONCACAF Summary
This places the USA, Cuba, Mexico, Canada, Costa Rica, and El Salvador in the final group. From this group I like Mexico, the USA, and Canada to grab the automatic spots for the World Cup. I think the fight for the fourth spot will be between Cuba and Costa Rica. El Salvador will be outclassed in this group. I think that Cuba might just have enough to sneak into the fourth place to play off against the South American team.

South America

In South America there is one large group with Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela. The top four teams qualify for the World Cup and the fifth place team will play off against the fourth place CONCACAF Qualifier. They have already played 6 of the 18 matches in this group, and there have been a few surprises to date. The largest has been how Brazil have struggled under Dunga: they are currently sitting in fifth place and facing criticism in the media after being beaten by a 10 man Paraguay. Paraguay have been the other surprise story in this group, as they currently sit in first place. FIFA has also repealed its ban on high altitude games, which should benefit Bolivia, Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador, who play some or all of their home games at high altitude. This leads to a lot of home wins and away losses for these teams. I can not imagine a scenario in this group where Brazil and Argentina do not qualify… though the way Brazil are going, they could end up in fourth. Colombia have been playing well; I see them qualifying for the World Cup. For the last two spots, I see a battle between current front-runners Paraguay, Chile, Uruguay, Ecuador, and Venezuela. I don’t think that Bolivia and Peru are in contention. I think that Chile has enough strength to hold off the others, and Paraguay will ride their early success to secure the playoff spot. This would set up a playoff between Cuba and Paraguay, from which I see Paraguay coming out on top.

World Cup Qualifying Round Up

To wrap up the World Cup: the only team currently qualified is South Africa, as hosts. The five other African spots will go to the winners of the five groups of four teams that have yet to be drawn. It will be exciting to see which teams are drawn together. The twenty teams that I think will be in these groups are: Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Cote D’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Mali, Zambia, DR Congo, Guinea, Angola, Morocco, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Egypt, Tunisia, Swaziland, Libya, and Cape Verde. Europe has thirteen places up for grabs, 9 for group winners, who in my opinion will be Portugal, Israel, Czech Republic, Russia, Spain, England, France, Bulgaria, and the Netherlands. The eight best second place teams will be drawn in playoffs against each other. Here are my picks for the nine second place teams: Denmark, Greece, Poland, Germany, Turkey, Croatia, Romania, Italy and Scotland. Asia is down to two groups, and the top two teams from each advance. I think these will be Australia, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea. Then the two third place teams will meet in a playoff; I see this as Japan against Iran, with Japan winning. Japan would then meet the Champion of Oceania, whom I see as New Caledonia, with Japan winning again to qualify for the World Cup. With the Americas, in the North the top two teams from the three preliminary groups make the final group. I think these will be the USA, Cuba, Mexico, Canada, Costa Rica, and El Salvador. The top three teams from this final group will then qualify for the World Cup. My prediction is Mexico, the USA, and Canada, with Cuba finishing in fourth to obtain a playoff spot against the fifth place South American team. I predict this being Paraguay, who will defeat Cuba to qualify for the World Cup. Now that you know my fifth place pick from South America, I view the top four, who all qualify automatically, as Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia. So there you have it: a clearer view of the World Cup qualifying, complete with the teams to watch. I hope that you enjoy the matches - I know I will!