Relegation Battles - Germany

As Sunday signals the arrival of May and the last month of club football in most European leagues, lets focus in on the relegation battles raging all over the place. I am putting up one post for each country. This post is about Germany.

First up the Bundesliga.

In the Bundesliga the bottom two sides are relegated to the 2 Bundesliga. The team 3rd from the bottom enters into a playoff against the 3rd place team from the 2 Bundesliga.

Teams involved in the relegation battle (I am using any team that is not mathematically safe)

Bold indicates a Six Point match against a fellow relegation candidate.

Italics indicate a local derby.

* - indicates a team can only be involved in the playoff and are safe from outright relegation.

Freiburg* 41p, -8: @Hamburger, @Borussia M'gladbach, Leverkusen

Hoffenheim* 40p, +2: Stuttgart, @Nürnberg, Wolfsburg

Schalke* 40p, 0: @Bayern Munich, Mainz, @Köln

Werder Bremen 38p, -14: Wolfsburg, Dortmund, @Kaiserslautern

Kaiserslautern 37p, -7: St. Pauli, @Wolfsburg, Werder Bremen

Stuttgart 36p, 0: @Hoffenheim, Hannover, @Bayern Munich

Köln 35p -20: Leverkusen, @Eintracht Frankfurt, Schalke

Eintracht Frankfurt 34p, -11: @Mainz, Köln, @Dortmund

Wolfsburg 32p, -7: @Werder Bremen, Kaiserslautern, @Hoffenheim

Borussia M'gladbach 29p, -20: @Hannover, Freiburg, @Hamburger

St. Pauli 29p, -23: @Kaiserslautern, Bayern Munich, @Mainz

I don't think either of the two teams at the bottom of the table have much hope of escaping the drop. St. Pauli & Borussia M'gladbach will be playing football in 2 Bundesliga next year. The real battle is to avoid the playoff, for me this comes down to one match in round 33. Eintracht Frankfurt - Köln. I think that Wolfsburg will be able to get more points than at least one of these teams. For both Köln & Eintracht Frankfurt this is really there only winnable match down the stretch. As I need to pick someone I think it will be Köln that end up in the playoff against the 3rd place team from 2 Bundesliga.

2 Bundesliga.

In the Bundesliga the bottom two sides are relegated to the 3rd Liga. The team 3rd from the bottom enters into a playoff against the 3rd place team from the 3rd Liga.

Teams involved in the relegation battle (I am using any team that is not mathematically safe)

Bold indicates a Six Point match against a fellow relegation candidate.

Italics indicate a local derby.

* - indicates a team can only be involved in the playoff and are safe from outright relegation.

Arminia Bielefeld are already relegated to the 3rd Liga

FC Ingolstadt 04 35p, -5: FC Erzgebirge Aue, @TSV München von 1860, VfL Osnabrück

SC Paderborn 07 33p, -15: VfL Osnabrück, @MSV Duisburg, TSV München von 1860

Karlsruher SC 29p, -26: Fortuna Düsseldorf, @Arminia Bielefeld, 1. FC Union Berlin

VfL Osnabrück 28p -20: @SC Paderborn 07, VfL Bochum 1848, @FC Ingolstadt 04

Rot-Weiß Oberhausen 28p, -26: @Alemannia Aachen, SpVgg Greuther Fürth, @FC Energie Cottbus

It is quite tight, but I think that VfL Osnabrück will not get the points they need away to Paderborn 07. That means that they will take the drop down to the 3rd. Liga. I think that Rot-Weiß Oberhausen will end up in the playoff against the 3rd place side in the 3rd Liga.

Relegation Battles - Italy

As Sunday signals the arrival of May and the last month of club football in most European leagues, lets focus in on the relegation battles raging all over the place. I am putting up one post for each country. This post is about Italy.

First up the Serie A.

In the Serie A the bottom three sides are relegated to the Serie B.

Teams involved in the relegation battle (I am using any team that is not mathematically safe)

Bold indicates a Six Point match against a fellow relegation candidate.

Italics indicate a local derby.

Bari are already relegated to Serie B.

Fiorentina 46, 4: Udinese, @Inter, Bologna, @Brescia

Genoa 45, -1: @Napoli, Sampdoria, @Lazio, Cesena

Cagliari 44, 0: @Catania, Cesena, @Milan, Parma

Bologna 40p, -12: @Milan, Parma, @Fiorentina, Bari

Chievo Verona 39p, -3: Lecce, @Juventus, Udinese, @Palermo

Parma 38p, -11: Palermo, @Bologna, Juventus, @Cagliari

Cesena 37p, -13: Inter, @Cagliari, Brescia, @Genoa

Catania 37p, -14: Cagliari, @Brescia, Roma, @Inter

Sampdoria 35p, -12: Brescia, @Genoa, Palermo, @Roma

Lecce 35p, -20: @Chievo, Napoli, @Bari, @Lazio

Brescia 30p, -16: @Sampdoria, Catania, @Cesena, Fiorentina

Brescia have an excellent opportunity to climb out the bottom with all of their six pointers. Of Course the biggest one is next against Sampdoria. I think that Brescia will just edge Sampdoria and that away win will give them the confidence to find the points and escape the drop. I think that Lecce will join Bari in Serie B next season. Also making the drop out of the top flight I have Ottawa's Sister City club Catania.

Serie B.

In the Serie B the bottom three sides are relegated to the Lega Pro Prima Divisione. The 18th & 19th place sides play a playoff to determine who is the fourth team relegated. Note the playoff doesn't occur if the 18th place team is 5 or more points above the 19th place team.

Teams involved in the relegation battle (I am using any team that is not mathematically safe)

Bold indicates a Six Point match against a fellow relegation candidate.

Reggina 53p, +4: @Albinoleffe, Varese, @Grosseto, Ascoli, @Sassuolo

Torino 52p, +1: Piacenza, @Siena, Triestina, @Empoli, Padova

Padova 49p, +9: @Varese, Ascoli, @Sassuolo, Livorno, @Torino

Empoli 49p, +5: @Sassuolo, Albinoleffe, @Portosummaga, Torino, @Vicenza

US Pescara 49p, -2: @Portosummaga, Livorno, @Vicenza, Novara, @Cittadella

Vicenza 49p, -6: Crotone, @Frosinone, US Pescara, @Triestina, Empoli

Livorno 47p, 0: Atalanta, @US Pescara, Piacenza, @Padova, Frosinone

Crotone 47p, -3: @Vicenza, Novara, @Cittadella, Grosseto, @Portosummaga

Modena 47p, -5: @Cittadella, Grosseto, @Varese, Portosummaga, @Novara

Grosseto 45p, -8: Triestina, @Modena, Reggina, @Crotone, Atalanta

Cittadella 43p, -5: Modena, @Triestina, Crotone, @Atalanta, US Pescara

Albinoleffe 43p, -9: Reggina, @Empoli, Atalanta, @Piacenza, Siena

Sassuolo 42p, -5: Empoli, @Piacenza, Padova, @Frosinone, Reggina

Piacenza 42p, -10: @Torino, Sassuolo, @Livorno, Albinoleffe, @Varese

Ascoli 40p, -8: Frosinone, @Padova, Siena, @Reggina, Triestina

Portosummaga 40p, -16: US Pescara, @Atalanta, Empoli, @Modena, Crotone

Triestina 37p, -16: @Grosseto, Cittadella, @Torino, Vicenza, @Ascoli

Frosinone 35p, -17: @Ascoli, Vicenza, @Novara, Sassuolo, @Livorno

With so many games left & teams involved anything could happen here. That said I am clearly wading into the unknown, but armed with the information available, here are my four teams that make the drop: Portosummaga, Triestina, Frosinone, & Albinoleffe

Relegation Battles - England

As Sunday signals the arrival of May and the last month of club football in most European leagues, lets focus in on the relegation battles raging all over the place. I am putting up one post for each country. This post is about England.

First up the Premier League.

In the Premier League the bottom three sides are relegated to the Championship.

Teams involved in the relegation battle (I am using any team that is not mathematically safe)

Bold indicates a Six Point match against a fellow relegation candidate.

Italics indicate a local derby.

Bolton 46p +1 @Blackburn, Sunderland, @Blackpool, City

Fulham 42p +4 @Sunderland, Liverpool, @Birmingham, Arsenal

Stoke 42p 0 @Blackpool, Arsenal, @City, Wigan

Newcastle 41p +1 @Liverpool, Birmingham, @Chelsea, WBA

Sunderland 41p -10 Fulham, @Bolton, Wolves, @West Ham

Aston Villa 41p -12 @WBA, Wigan, @Arsenal, Liverpool

West Brom 40p -15 Aston Villa, @Wolves, Everton, @Newcastle

Birmingham 38p -17 Wolves, @Newcastle, Fulham, @Spurs

Blackburn 35p -15 Bolton, @West Ham, United, @Wolves

Blackpool 34p - 22 Stoke, @Tottenham, Bolton, @United

Wigan 34p - 23 Everton, @Aston Villa, West Ham, @Stoke

Wolves 33p - 23 @Birmingham, WBA, @Sunderland, Blackburn

West Ham 32p -22 @City, Blackburn, @Wigan, Sunderland

As you can see there a bevy of important matches down the stretch. The three teams I have dropping down to the Championship are: Wolves, Wigan, & West Ham. Obviously with there still being 4 matches remaining there are a number of different situations. I am certain that West Ham will be relegated. I kept flopping over which teams would join them in going down, in the end I went with Wolves and Wigan.

Now to the Championship.

In the Championship the bottom three teams are relegated to League One.

Teams involved in the relegation battle (I am using any team that is not mathematically safe)

Bold indicates a Six Point match against a fellow relegation candidate.

Italics indicate a local derby.

Preston North End are already relegated.

Crystal Palace 47p -22 @Hull, Forest

Doncaster 47p - 23 Leicester, @Boro

Sheffield United 41p - 31 Barnsley, @Swansea

Scunthorpe 41p - 40 @Forest, @Pompey

The chances of either Sheffield United or Scunthorpe escaping the drop are very small. I think it could come down to the last day of the season for Sheffield United & Doncaster. Crystal Palace are safe and Scunthorpe are going down. I would love to see Sheffield United pull off one of the all time great escapes, but I think they left it a little to late. So they take the drop with PNE & Scunthorpe.

League One

In League One the bottom four teams are relegated to League Two.

Teams involved in the relegation battle (I am using any team that is not mathematically safe)

Bold indicates a Six Point match against a fellow relegation candidate.

Italics indicate a local derby.

Swindon are already relegated.

Notts County 49p - 13 @MK Dons, Brighton

Walsall 45p - 15 Charlton, @Southampton

Dag & Red 44p - 16 Carlisle, @Peterborough

Bristol Rovers 44p - 33 Wednesday, @Colchester

Plymouth 42p - 17 @Exeter, Southampton, Leyton Orient

I think that Walsall will take the drop along with Bristol Rovers & Plymouth. I just can't see Walsall getting any more points and they run the risk of being lit up by Southampton.

League Two.

In League Two the bottom two teams are relegated to Conference.

Teams involved in the relegation battle (I am using any team that is not mathematically safe)

Bold indicates a Six Point match against a fellow relegation candidate.

Italics indicate a local derby.

Morecambe 51p - 13 @Port Vale, Northampton

Macclesfield 51p - 16 @Gillingham, Hereford

Cheltenham 51p - 20 Shrewsbury, @Stockport

Bradford 51p - 21 @Hereford, Crewe

Burton 49p - 14 @Southend, Accrington

Hereford 48p - 16 Bradford, @Macclesfield

Lincoln 47p - 32 @Oxford Utd, Aldershot

Northampton 46p - 11 Stevenage, @Morecambe

Barnet 45p - 18 @Accrington, Port Vale

Stockport 40p - 46 @Crewe, Cheltenham

Stockport are going down. There is no way that they will make up the massive goal difference. They had a golden opportunity to survive on the weekend when they hosted Northampton, but only managed a draw. Coincidentally, I think it will be Northampton that join them in the drop out of League football.

New Podcast

Happy Tuesday Everyone,

There is a new podcast up at The Subs Bench We discuss all of the action of the weekend, also including a random new bit about Belgium.

Enjoy

New Podcast Up

Good morning Everyone,

To help you make it through day 1 of a four day week. There is a new podcast up.

Make sure you listen to the song at the end.

The Podcast

Combining the Cups

Combining the Copas?

Have you ever thought about what it would be like to combine the Copa America (the CONMEBOL championship) and the Gold Cup (the CONCACAF championship)? Just think about it for a minute.

Did you have visions of Canada’s excellent performance against Brazil in Seattle? Or our Victory over Colombia in the Gold Cup final? Or our defeat in Buenos Aires? It is not that absurd a question given that CONMEBOL invites teams from other regions to participate in the Copa America anyway. In fact Mexico is a regular attendee. Canada was invited after we won the Gold Cup, however we declined the invitation due to security concerns in Colombia. As well the Gold Cup has invited CONMEBOL teams in the past too, as I mentioned above we beat Colombia in the Gold Cup final.

What would a combined tournament look like?

I imagine that the tournament would feature 16 teams in four groups. With the top two from each group advancing to the quarterfinals. Based on the current FIFA rankings the top 16 teams in the regions are: Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, USA, Paraguay, Mexico, Honduras, Colombia, Peru, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Jamaica, Venezuela, Panama, and Canada. So the groups would likely be something like this:

Group 1 – Brazil, Honduras, Colombia, Canada

Group 2 – Argentina, Mexico, Peru, Panama

Group 3 – Uruguay, Paraguay, Costa Rica, and Venezuela

Group 4 – Chile, USA, Ecuador, Jamaica

Looks like a good tournament to me. What do you think? One issue that the new tournament would face, is how often to play. Currently the Gold Cup is every two years, while the Copa America is every four years. I think it is more likely that the combined tournament would take place every four years. That said it would be fantastic if it was played every two years. Each tournament could rotate between North and South America, so it would be four years between tournaments on each continent.

What would qualifying look like?

Currently there is no qualifying for the Copa America. All ten CONMEBOL sides are included and two other sides (usually Mexico and another nation) are invited. At the Gold Cup, Canada, USA, and Mexico are given automatic berths while other nations must qualify. There is no chance of a combined qualifying involving all 45 of the teams. There is no way that Brazil etc would go for it. Brazil make millions playing friendlies around the globe, they certainly wouldn’t want to use an international break to play away to St. Vincent. I think that the most likely scenario is either that the eight highest ranked sides are given automatic berths. The rest of the sides would then compete for the remaining 8 places. That would mean that Colombia, Peru, Venezuela, Bolivia and Canada would all have to go through a qualification process to make the Cup. Also the 13 lowest ranked sides would compete in pre qualifying for 8 places. Pre-qualifying is already a feature of the Gold Cup Qualification process. That would give 8 groups of 4 with the group winner advancing to the Cup.

This would be a good thing for Canada. Qualification gives us more opportunities to cap-tie players, and also a chance to accrue more ranking points. Qualification matches are worth two and half times a friendly match. I am not sure how Colombia, Peru, Venezuela and Bolivia would feel about it though. I think that they may go for it, for similar reasons as it appeals to Canada. However if they don’t like it there is another option. All the CONMEBOL teams qualify and CONCACAF sides qualify against each other for the six remaining places. I really can’t see CONCACAF going for this one. It doesn’t really provide the incentive to combine the two tournaments, especially since a number of CONCACAF sides have been invited to the tournament anyway. That would mean giving up their regional tournament for four more places in CONMEBOL’s doesn’t strike me as likely.

Could it happen?

I really don’t know. I think that it would be a good thing for football in the Americas. One side effect that could come from this would be talk of combining the federations entirely. That would mean that there are 8 World Cup places for the Americas. If you are curious the current top 8 from the Americas includes 5 South American sides and 3 North American sides. I think that this combining the tournament would have a positive impact on football in Canada. We would play more competitive matches and a few of them would be against some of the top sides in the World. It would also help to change the perception that Canada is not a footballing country if we are regularly competing with South American sides. Not to mention we may get a chance to host the Cup. That would be a fantastic opportunity for football fans around the country and a definite boost to our football infrastructure.

This article is also published at The Subs Bench

New Podcast!

Listen as I join @AussieVillain on The Subs Bench podcast. We discuss the Premier League, Champions League, Championship, Serie A, MLS, and Bundesliga.

Enjoy!

What will happen in the last 7 games of the Championship

Who will be the Champion?

Queens Park Rangers.
Why they are 9 points clear at the top presently. There next three matches are away to last place Scunthorpe and Barnsley, plus home to Derby. I expect them to win all three of these matches which will in essence lock up the title for them. I think they will lift the trophy at Loftus Road when they host Hull on April 25th.

Who will grab the second promotion place?

Norwich.
It will be a very tight race and could easily go the other way depending on a few results. The team that I see pushing them to the end is Cardiff. Norwich's next match is away to Swansea if they lose that then it becomes a 3 team race for second. I think Norwich will do enough to get at least a draw.

Who will be in the Playoffs?

Cardiff, Swansea, Reading, and Leeds.
The two Welsh sides are locks for playoff spots. But the other two playoff places are part of a wide open race involving heaps of teams. I think that Reading will get on a bit of a winning streak and force themselves into the playoffs. While the fight between Leeds and Nottingham Forest will be for the final spot. Unfortunately for Forest fans, I think they will fall just short. No doubt a disappointing end to what looked like a promising campaign.

So... what about Pompey?

10th.
I think that though Pompey are mathematically amongst the heap of teams with a chance at a playoff place, their schedule is too tough for them to win out. That said they will move up a few places and finish with a solid tenth. This will give us a strong foundation to build on for next year. I will be happy with this finish given how much of the season we spent worried about ending up in the relegation battle.

Who will be dropping down to League One?

Scunthorpe, Sheffield United, and Doncaster
Scunthorpe are a lost cause and will finish in last. Sheffield United seem to have lost the belief. They have an absolutely huge game away to Preston in a few weeks. Which you may have guessed I think PNE will win. Preston seem to have found some belief and have been grabbing a lot more points. That said it will be a stiff task to catch any of the teams above them. To do this they need to continue playing with the same belief they discovered in the past few weeks. With Doncaster, they have been far from fantastic and I don't see them getting many points in their final 7 matches. In reality if they get it together and get 4 or 5 points they will survive. However I didn't see them getting that many. When I worked it out, I actually had them taking the drop on goal difference. If you are wondering why I didn't mention Crystal Palace, it is because of their phenomenal home record (36 of 42 points at home). They are a top 10 team at home, so with there 3 remaining home matches they are as good as safe.

Disagree? Agree? Let me know your predictions in the comments.

Cricket Canada statement on ICC Decision

Cricket Canada statement on ICC Decision

Toronto, Ontario April 6, 2011 - Cricket Canada is disheartened to learn the International Cricket Council has elected to not allow Associate cricket nations such as Canada into the 2015 Cricket World Cup. While it is apparent that the push for a 10 team tournament supports the needs of the sponsors and broadcasters who ultimately fund much of our programs, we were very disappointed to learn that there would be no qualification process for the 2015 Cricket World Cup.

From the results of the recently completed 2011 Cricket World Cup in the subcontinent, it is apparent that Associate nations are able to compete at the international level and need more encouragement to develop their high performance teams against the full member nations. Canadian players turned out strong performances in this world cup and the decision will surely mark the end of world cup careers for several of our players in the prime of their careers.

An additional disappointment will be players who gained experience at this world cup like 20 year old Hiral Patel. Hiral, who hit a blistering half century against defending champions Australia, will be closer to the end of his career by the time he gets a chance to compete in the games marquee event again. We have had significant interest and profile generated in Canadian cricket as a result of our participation in the world cup, and this increase in our sport would surely wane if we are not allowed to participate in the world cup for at eight years or more.

The ICC has pointed to the fact that the Twenty20 world cup has been expanded to include more associate and affiliate teams but as many of us know, while Twenty20 is a way to develop the commercial enterprise of the game it is not a way forward to develop the game itself in all its forms. This short-sighted decision also has far reaching effects as it will become more difficult to raise money from governments and corporate partners, both of who strive to be associated with the game at its highest level.

Cricket Canada proposes a conference of all stake holders be called to discuss the path forward for the associates and affiliates. It is important that representatives from all major groups including Full members, Associate Members and Affiliate Members attend this session and put forward their positions in an open and objective manner to arrive at a solution that is fair to all. Only by consulting all stakeholders can we arrive at an amicable solution.

Cricket Canada is very grateful for the overwhelming support that has been received from around the world regarding this decision and we are working with our associate and affiliate partners to bring about a satisfactory compromise. We encourage all followers of the game around the world to continue to lobby your local administrators as well as the ICC to reverse this tragic decision.

How to keep the World in the World Cup

Welcome to my first cricket post. As you may have heard the Cricket World Cup just wrapped up in India. India won an exciting final over Sri Lanka, however for me what the ICC announced recently has overshadowed what was a great tournament. They announced that the 2015 Cricket World Cup in Australia & New Zealand would only include full ICC members. In case you don't know what that means, it means that the next World Cup will only feature 10 teams instead of the 14 that competed in India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. It is also not the top 10 teams, it is only the 10 that are full ICC members. So at the moment the only sides that are going to be competing down under are: Australia, New Zealand, Zimbabwe, England, South Africa, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, the West Indies, and Sri Lanka. It is my understanding that this change was brought about due to some of the Cricket Boards complaining to the ICC about how long the World Cup took to play, and that they had to play "minnows". Funny thing though, Ireland, one of the so called "minnows", beat England in the World Cup. Not only that, Ireland are actually ranked higher than Zimbabwe, but will not be allowed to compete as they are not a full ICC member.

Let us take a minute to examine why this is a ridiculous decision from the ICC.
1. Cricket is growing around the globe. Stopping all new countries from competing at the World Cup will have a huge impact on the growth of the sport in new areas.
2. It will kill some teams. Ireland have already raised this issue with the ICC: sponsors are likely to leave and with no sponsors and no prospect of attracting new ones of the same level it could kill the Irish Cricket Board; no doubt Canada are in a similar place.
3. Players will leave. The World Cup is a big draw for cricketers, and with no World Cup prospects some players may opt to switch countries. England's side that lost to Ireland featured an Irish player from the last World Cup, along with a few South Africans.
4. It turns new fans off cricket all together. There is nothing like gross injustice to take the joy out of a sport. I am a big cricket fan, but I am having a hard time getting up for the IPL because I am so angry with the ICC. I can see a lot of fans that were gained in the last months just walking away.
5. It will cost them money. With fewer countries involved there will be fewer countries wanting advertising and wanting to buy the TV rights. Plus, by cutting the number of matches nearly in half they are going to reduce their ticket revenue.

So there are five things that likely didn't cross the ICC's mind when they made their ridiculous decision. But let's return to why they made it: the World Cup at 43 days took too long and there were too many matches against "minnows". You had 14 teams divided into two groups and playing a round robin. That takes time - why not ADD two more teams and then have 4 groups of 4? With two groups of 7 there were 42 group matches. With two groups of 5 there are 20. With 4 groups of 4 there are 24. So by adding two more teams to the World Cup instead of dropping four, the net gain in matches played is four. I think that is certainly manageable and the tournament would increase cricket's popularity rather than detract from it.

I think the ICC has been a little too hasty in their re-organisation of the World Cup. Hopefully they re-examine their options with pressure from Ireland, Canada, and other nations. The way to continue cricket's growth in the world is not by closing doors, but by opening them.