Thursday, October 15, 2009

Why Canada should not play Macedonia - UPDATED

Right now Canada have accumulated 242.26 points towards the World Cup Qualifying Draw for 2014 from Phase 3. For more information on the phases check out this post.

If we win against Macedonia (based on their current rank of 56) we would LOSE 3.75 points.

If we drew against Macedonia (based on their current rank of 56) we would LOSE 24.32 points

If we lost against Macedonia (based on their current rank of 56) we would LOSE 34.61 points

So no matter what the result against Macedonia we lose ground. The next FIFA rankings come out tomorrow. They will show us where Macedonia will be ranked when we play them. For their to be a chance that Canada could improve its standings Macedonia would have to be ranked #39. So it is not going to happen.

UPDATE - The Rankings have come out and Macedonia is Ranked #66. So if we win we will lose 5.89 points, if we draw we will lose 25.04 points, and if we lose we still drop 34.61 points. The dropped points are all in relation to the potential World Cup Qualifying draw for Brazil 2014 in May 2011. The effect would be even more pronounced on the current rankings where a win would cost us approximately 12 points.

This was a reckless decision by the CSA that makes zero sense from an organization that should be focused on getting Canada into the strongest position for the WCQ 2014 draw.

I am going to get the latest standings for the 2014 WCQ draw out tonight or tomorrow.

UPDATE - The updated standings are up. You can see them here.


Serie_AHH said...

I agree 100% but my only arguement is that how does Canada get the quilifiers againist higher seeded team?

What incentive is there for Ghana, Romania, Japan or Asmir to play a lower seeded team? They would be in the same situation Canada is in now.

The FIFA rule in my opinion should have some wiggle room when it comes to accumulating points. Perhaps something along the line of: if you play within 5 spots of your current ranking your country would still gain points.

The way things are right now I don't see why any team would schedule friendlies that would automatically hurt their own rankings.

Pompey Canuck said...

Sorry I didn't explain it clearly. Normally we would gain points by playing Macedonia. The problem with the rankings is that a Gold Cup match counts triple what a friendly does. It is because of this that our points average is so high. We should definitely play Macedonia, just not until May of next year.

Also in every year teams need to play at least 5 matches or they take a big hit in the rankings. So if Canada had played 4 matches and had a high points average it is still a better idea to play even the smallest country than to not play a fifth match.

I hope that makes more sense.