Why Canada IS playing Macedonia

I know that many of you have read my post about why Canada should not be playing Macedonia. Like you I want Canada to be in the best position going into qualifying for 2014. With that in mind I was prepared to not see Canada take to the field for another 7 months, solely to preserve our high FIFA points totals that we earned in the Gold Cup. As I mentioned on Canadian Terrace Talk when Sam first mentioned that Canada would be playing a friendly in November, I went to talk to the CSA to present my case about why we shouldn't be playing Macedonia. I wasn't able to meet with Peter Montopoli when I went to the office (a perk of living in Ottawa) but I met with his assistant and was able to set up a chance to talk with him. That happened yesterday. I told him that I wanted to understand the other issues that led to scheduling a friendly against Macedonia, and make sure that the CSA was aware of the numbers ahead of a potential qualifying draw in May 2011. What I heard was encouraging. We are playing Macedonia because we need to play matches otherwise we won't be good enough to qualify. We are also going to be playing other friendlies some of them even in Canada! I mentioned that the key thing was to play 5 matches between May 2010 and May 2011 and that didn't sound like it was going to be a problem. Which is great news for Canadian Soccer fans. As I mentioned in my post about the whole process Canada really dropped the ball between May 2006 and May 2007. We didn't play enough matches and we didn't play the right kind of opponent. I told Peter that I would keep him updated with the numbers. If Costa Rica lose their playoff with Uruguay (we should all hope that they do) then Canada is competing for three spots with Costa Rica, El Salvador, Panama, Jamaica, & Trinidad and Tobago. Right now we are in second. With a sizable lead over third. Things are looking good for Canada. The main thing for us is to win the matches that we play, and hope that Costa Rica, El Salvador, Panama etc lose any matches that they play. This should see Canada seeded as a top six team going into World Cup Qualifying for Brazil 2014. Which ideally means that we will be in the Hex, which would give us a shot at Brazil which I know we could take. Play Up Canada!

Canada Ranked #53

You may have noticed that Canada has jumped 13 places, and is now ranked #53. How did we accomplish this amazing feat without playing any matches? The FIFA rankings are based on four years worth of results. So for the October Rankings it includes Oct 08 - Oct 09 at 100%, Oct 07 - Oct 08 at 50%, Oct 06 - Oct 07 at 30%, and Oct 05 - Oct 06 at 20%. So for a painful yet concrete example that disaster in Montreal has now stopped counting against our 100% average entirely and is now counted against the 50% average. Given that our stellar performance in the Gold Cup is rated 100% we can expect to stay high in the rankings until July or August 2010 when that drops to 50%. At which point we should have already started playing friendlies in May so hopefully to maintain our ranking.

The points for each phase are calculated by average. So if a team accumulates 3000 points in a year. That total is divided by the number of matches that they have played (it must be at least 5, or it is divided by 5 anyway). So if a team only played 5 matches then they would have 600 points that count towards their ranking. But if they played another match and lost 3000 would be divided by 6 leaving them with only 500 points to count.

For the year May 09 - May 10 Canada has just over 2900 points from 6 matches or 484.5 points (at 100%). Any points that we gain will be added to our total and then divided by the number of matches. So it would make sense to play a team that could offer us at least 484.5 points if we won, otherwise we would be guaranteed to drop in the rankings. That means the lowest ranked team that Canada could play would be a UEFA team that is ranked #39 or #38. That means with a win we would stay where we are. To improve our standing we would have to play a higher ranked team and win.