Thoughts on Canada - USA round 1

They were better than us. I thought that Hart's formation was the right choice, it worked well to contain the American wingers which was my biggest concern going into the match. However what seemed to happen was that our wingers would mark their wingers leaving huge amounts of space for the full backs to take advantage of, which they did. The US was at their most dangerous when they had their full backs attacking.

The first goal was unlucky, normally Lars makes that save. I expect that Milos will start the rest of the tournament now barring any further goal keeping errors.

Our marking in the box was poor. Ledgerwood noticed Dempsey was behind him much too late and Dempsey scored because of it. In the first half Carlos Bocanegra was left completely unmarked in the box but managed to miss from a few yards out. That was unlucky for the states so I felt that us being down 1-0 at the half was fair.

Problems in the midfield. Atiba is a good player but he is not Iniesta. Too often Atiba was left with no one to pass to and had to dribble his way past a few people, which he succeeded in doing a couple times. Often we would have players standing and waiting for a pass rather than moving into space and receiving the pass. Dunfield had a poor game. I know that he was starting due to an injury from JDG, his passing was very poor more often leading to turnovers than anything else.

Canada was too cautious in possession. We rarely tried a through ball and opted for a "safer" pass than a pass that put the Americans under pressure nearly every time. Specifically, when Dunfield opted to pass backwards to Ledgerwood instead of to DeRo who was in space and in a more advanced position on the right wing. There was a time when Simpson was making a great run into the box but rather than pass to where he was running the pass went behind him.

Ali Gerba was fantastic when he came on. He forced two great saves from Tim Howard. Speaking of which Howard was brilliant making a number of huge saves to maintain his clean sheet. When Gerba came on, Canada changed its formation and gave the USA more opportunities to attack us but Canada did create more opportunities. I expect that had we started that way the US would have scored more than two goals against us.

Man of the Match: Tim Howard

Play of the day: Clint Dempsey's flying back heel

I expect that Stephen Hart will go with a similar set up next match with changes bringing on Gerba likely for Johnson, JDG in for Dunfield if he is healthy, and switching the keepers.

Playing the way we did against the Americans I think that we should be able to get by Panama & Guadeloupe, but we will need to improve our passing to get through the Quarterfinals.

I am pleased that so many fans traveled to the match, I wish I could have been there. I was disappointed with the tv coverage in Canada. I would like to see Sportsnet move the Jays game to Sportsnet One and put Canada on the main network. If you are the home of Canadian soccer then act like it. The Jays play 162 games every year. This was our first competitive match in two years. I was also disappointed how many bars I had to go to before I found one that was showing it. However I was pleased that about half the Capital City squad turned up to watch as well, even if a few of them were cheering on the Americans.

Combining the Cups

Combining the Copas?

Have you ever thought about what it would be like to combine the Copa America (the CONMEBOL championship) and the Gold Cup (the CONCACAF championship)? Just think about it for a minute.

Did you have visions of Canada’s excellent performance against Brazil in Seattle? Or our Victory over Colombia in the Gold Cup final? Or our defeat in Buenos Aires? It is not that absurd a question given that CONMEBOL invites teams from other regions to participate in the Copa America anyway. In fact Mexico is a regular attendee. Canada was invited after we won the Gold Cup, however we declined the invitation due to security concerns in Colombia. As well the Gold Cup has invited CONMEBOL teams in the past too, as I mentioned above we beat Colombia in the Gold Cup final.

What would a combined tournament look like?

I imagine that the tournament would feature 16 teams in four groups. With the top two from each group advancing to the quarterfinals. Based on the current FIFA rankings the top 16 teams in the regions are: Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, USA, Paraguay, Mexico, Honduras, Colombia, Peru, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Jamaica, Venezuela, Panama, and Canada. So the groups would likely be something like this:

Group 1 – Brazil, Honduras, Colombia, Canada

Group 2 – Argentina, Mexico, Peru, Panama

Group 3 – Uruguay, Paraguay, Costa Rica, and Venezuela

Group 4 – Chile, USA, Ecuador, Jamaica

Looks like a good tournament to me. What do you think? One issue that the new tournament would face, is how often to play. Currently the Gold Cup is every two years, while the Copa America is every four years. I think it is more likely that the combined tournament would take place every four years. That said it would be fantastic if it was played every two years. Each tournament could rotate between North and South America, so it would be four years between tournaments on each continent.

What would qualifying look like?

Currently there is no qualifying for the Copa America. All ten CONMEBOL sides are included and two other sides (usually Mexico and another nation) are invited. At the Gold Cup, Canada, USA, and Mexico are given automatic berths while other nations must qualify. There is no chance of a combined qualifying involving all 45 of the teams. There is no way that Brazil etc would go for it. Brazil make millions playing friendlies around the globe, they certainly wouldn’t want to use an international break to play away to St. Vincent. I think that the most likely scenario is either that the eight highest ranked sides are given automatic berths. The rest of the sides would then compete for the remaining 8 places. That would mean that Colombia, Peru, Venezuela, Bolivia and Canada would all have to go through a qualification process to make the Cup. Also the 13 lowest ranked sides would compete in pre qualifying for 8 places. Pre-qualifying is already a feature of the Gold Cup Qualification process. That would give 8 groups of 4 with the group winner advancing to the Cup.

This would be a good thing for Canada. Qualification gives us more opportunities to cap-tie players, and also a chance to accrue more ranking points. Qualification matches are worth two and half times a friendly match. I am not sure how Colombia, Peru, Venezuela and Bolivia would feel about it though. I think that they may go for it, for similar reasons as it appeals to Canada. However if they don’t like it there is another option. All the CONMEBOL teams qualify and CONCACAF sides qualify against each other for the six remaining places. I really can’t see CONCACAF going for this one. It doesn’t really provide the incentive to combine the two tournaments, especially since a number of CONCACAF sides have been invited to the tournament anyway. That would mean giving up their regional tournament for four more places in CONMEBOL’s doesn’t strike me as likely.

Could it happen?

I really don’t know. I think that it would be a good thing for football in the Americas. One side effect that could come from this would be talk of combining the federations entirely. That would mean that there are 8 World Cup places for the Americas. If you are curious the current top 8 from the Americas includes 5 South American sides and 3 North American sides. I think that this combining the tournament would have a positive impact on football in Canada. We would play more competitive matches and a few of them would be against some of the top sides in the World. It would also help to change the perception that Canada is not a footballing country if we are regularly competing with South American sides. Not to mention we may get a chance to host the Cup. That would be a fantastic opportunity for football fans around the country and a definite boost to our football infrastructure.

This article is also published at The Subs Bench

Latest Standings for CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying Draw

Well first off congrats to Canada for getting a point off Ukraine! That result kept us in the top six, but we are by no means safe with Panama & Jamaica on our heals. Also Dominica needs a mention as they have jumped up into 11th in the table after their strong performances in Gold Cup Qualifying. This should also see Dominica achieve an all time high when the latest FIFA rankings come out in a few days. Without any further delay here are the latest standings:

May 2011 Rank	Country	Points
1	USA	992
2	Mexico	848
3	Honduras	521
4	Costa Rica	470
5	Canada	401
6	Jamaica	398
7	Panama	392
8	Guyana	320
9	El Salvador	273
10	T & T	247
11	Dominica	233
12	Suriname	199
13	Puerto Rico	198
14	Barbados	160
15	Grenada	149
16	Guatemala	142
17	St. Vincent	132
18	St. Kitts	124
19	Haiti	123
20	Antigua	121
21	Bermuda	94
22	Cayman Islands	90
23	Cuba	82
24	Dominican R.	70
25	N. Antilles	57
26	Nicaragua	53
27	Belize	44
28	St. Lucia	31
29	Turks & Caicos	13
30	British VI	12
31	Bahamas	9
32	Aruba	7
33	USVI	3
34	Anguilla	0
34	Montserrat	0

The Latest on the Road to Brasil 2014

Greetings football fans,

Pompey Canuck here again with an update on the Road to Brasil 2014. After the grand spectacle of the World Cup (which required many late nights & early mornings to follow from Australia), I spent two travelling around the Outback, making it difficult to keep up with the all of the football news...but I have found out some crucial info affecting Canada's journey to Brasil.

First off, after the strong performances of our CONCACAF brethren Mexico & the States at the World Cup in South Africa, CONCACAF has seen our Global co-efficient rise from the minimum .85 to .88! That is great news! It means that Canada will now get more ranking points for beating CONCACAF opponents, which should see all CONCACAF teams move up the overall FIFA rankings. It also means that CONCACAF is the third strongest football federation in the World after Europe and South America (which both have the maximum co-efficient of 1). I should also point out that the strong performance of Ghana boosted the CAF to .86 leaving only Asia & Oceania on the minimum.

Second, I have the current standings for the May 2011 FIFA rankings, which as far as I am aware is still when the draw for World Cup Qualifying is likely to take place. The top six are seeded in the draw and should progress to the final stage. So without further ado here are the standings which include Puerto Rico's win over Anguilla on October 2.

May 2011 Rank	Country	Points
1	USA	963
2	Mexico	835
3	Honduras	499
4	Costa Rica	440
5	Canada	366
6	Panama	346
7	Jamaica	344
8	El Salvador	273
9	T & T	254
10	Grenada	149
11	Guatemala	142
12	Haiti	123
13	Antigua	121
14	Puerto Rico	117
15	Guyana	105
16	Dominica	101
17	Bermuda	94
18	Cuba	82
19	Barbados	72
20	St. Kitts	68
21	Suriname	67
22	St. Vincent	58
23	N. Antilles	57
24	Nicaragua	53
25	Belize	44
26	Cayman Islands	24
27	Turks & Caicos	13
27	St. Lucia	13
29	British VI	12
30	Bahamas	9
31	Aruba	7
32	Dominican R.	4
33	USVI	3
34	Anguilla	0
34	Montserrat	0

There you have it: Canada is sitting in 5th place. However we are by no means comfortably in 5th place - Panama and Jamaica are right on our heels. Now with May 2011 just around the corner, the matches we play count for a lot more towards the standings, so it is not out of the question for Canada to catch Costa Rica or even Honduras. To give you an idea of the amount of movement possible, Dominica picked up two wins over Barbados, grabbing nearly 100 points and moving from 26th to 16th. With that in mind, here are the matches coming up for the top eleven teams in October:

USA - Home to Poland & Colombia
Mexico - Home to Venezuela
Honduras - Away to New Zealand, Home to Guatemala
Costa Rica - Away to Peru, Home to El Salvador
Canada - Away to Ukraine
Panama - Home to El Salvador & Peru
Jamaica - Home to Trinidad & Tobago
El Salvador - Away to Panama & Costa Rica
Trinidad & Tobago - Away to Jamaica
Grenada - No matches scheduled
Guatemala - Home to Belize, Away to Honduras

If Canada manages a victory over Ukraine it will take our points total to 471. That would put us ahead of Costa Rica if they drop both of their matches and just behind Honduras if they lose theirs. It is going to be a close fight to make the top six no matter what happens. That said, because Canada have been playing matches we are going to be a lot better off than we were four years ago, when we were only the 11th ranked side in the region.

I am going to put out the next update at the start of November. Look for a lot of movement from some of the smaller nations as the qualifiers for the 2011 Gold Cup get underway.

What can Canada expect from Poland on the 18th?

Once the friendly with Poland was announced I enlisted my friend Michal (who helped with the Polish League Preview) to write his thoughts on the Polish side for the upcoming friendly. Thanks Michal! (The full squad list for Poland is at the bottom of the post)

The upcoming match against Canada will be the second game on the national team level for the new Poland’s coach Franciszek Smuda. His team will play the first match a few days earlier, against Romania. Smuda has been known as a great motivator and his teams have always played attractive, offensive football regardless of who they were facing. He has had some successes coaching the best Polish club teams (Widzew Lodz, Legia Warsaw, Wisla Cracow and just recently Lech Poznan), especially doing well with them in the European cups. Last season he led Lech in the UEFA Cup to advance from the group stage and in the end to lose to Udinese by conceding a late goal in the second leg game. In the group phase Lech with Smuda played against Deportivo La Coruna (1:1). Julian de Guzman played in that match, so now he’ll be back in Poland and again facing Smuda’s team. To make things interesting, another Canadian player, Michael Klukowski, who was born in Poland, also played against Lech in the Europa Cup, early this season.

What are the strengths of the Polish team?

In theory, it is the offense. Poland has some talented offensive midfielders: Jakub Blaszczykowski (Borussia Dortmund), Sławomir Peszko (Lech Poznan), Kamil Kosowski (APOEL Nikozja), Ludovic Obraniak (Lille OSC) and Roger Guerreiro (AEK Ateny). Obraniak has made an appearance for the France U-21 national team a few years ago, however due to having Polish roots through his grandfather and his desire to reconnect with his heritage, he was officially called up for the Poland’s senior team by Leo Beenhakker for the friendly against Greece this year in… Bydgoszcz, where he scored the only two goals in the match.

Up Front

Three forwards are in the squad for the friendlies: Poland U-21 starlet Patryk Malecki (Wisla Cracow), Lech Poznan’s best player Robert Lewandowski and speedy Ireneusz Jelen (AJ Auxerre).

Who’s missing?

In the goal we will see either the third Manchester United’s goalie, Tomasz Kuszczak, or the fourth Arsenal’s goalkeeper, 19-year old Wojciech Szczesny. Artur Boruc wasn’t called up, but Smuda says that he will get a chance in the future games. Another controversial decision made by the Polish coach was to not call the Poland’s captain Mariusz Lewandowski from Shakhtar Donetsk who simply didn’t earn Smuda’s trust. Two other first squad players that initially got called up for the coming games are injured. These are the last season Polish Ekstraklasa top scorer Pawel Brozek from Wisla Cracow and a defensive midfielder Rafal Murawski from Rubin Kazan. Right back Marcin Wasilewski has been recovering from his (Eduardo da Silva style) broken leg injury and missed a few recent Poland’s games. Ebi Smolarek is currently without a club and this is the reason (for Smuda) he will not play for Poland in the coming games.

What can we expect to happen in Bydgoszcz on November 18?

Poland will try to play offensively and I see Canada’s chances in counterattacks. Polish defence hasn’t performed well recently and mostly this formation was blamed for conceding key goals in the World Cup qualifiers. As Poland didn’t make it to the tournament in South Africa, their next competitive game will be played during Euro 2012, which Poland is hosting along with Ukraine. This means two and a half years of experimenting with the squad, tactics and playing friendly matches only. If Smuda decides to play experienced players against Romania and put younger players against Canada, we could see a more open game in Bydgoszcz and more chances for goals for Canada. If Tomasz Radzinski plays in that game, he’ll probably be very willing to score a goal, as the venue will feel like home for him. He was born in Inowroclaw which is located just about 40 km southeast of Bydgoszcz…

Poland Squad

Goalkeepers:
Tomasz Kuszczak, 27 years old (currently at Manchester United)
Wojciech Szczesny, 19 (Arsenal London)

Defenders:
Marcin Kowalczyk, 24 (Dynamo Moscow)
Jakub Rzezniczak, 23 (Legia Warsaw)
Michal Zewlakow, 33 (Olympiacos Piraeus)
Maciej Sadlok, 20 (Ruch Chorzow)
Adam Kokoszka, 23 (Empoli FC)
Piotr Brozek, 26 (Wisla Cracow)
Seweryn Gancarczyk, 27 (Lech Poznan)
Kamil Glik, 21 (Piast Gliwice)

Midfielders:
Jakub Blaszczykowski, 23 (Borussia Dortmund)
Slawomir Peszko, 24 (Lech Poznan)
Dariusz Dudka, 25 (AJ Auxerre)
Radoslaw Majewski, 22 (Nottingham Forest)
Janusz Gancarczyk, 25 (Slask Wroclaw)
Kamil Kosowski, 32 (APOEL Nicosia)
Ludovic Obraniak, 25 (Lille OSC)
Roger Guerreiro, 27 (AEK Athens)
Maciej Rybus, 20 (Legia Warsaw)

Forwards:
Robert Lewandowski, 21 (Lech Poznan)
Ireneusz Jelen, 28 (AJ Auxerre)
Patryk Malecki, 21 (Wisla Cracow)

Canada to play Poland on November 18th

You read that correctly. Canada is playing on both of the upcoming International Dates. We are playing Macedonia on the 14th of November and have now added a fixture against Poland on the 18th. I have no idea if either of these matches are going to be shown in Canada. However I am certain that the Poland match will be available on some of the grey media out there, given that much of it is run out of Poland.

Poland is not an ideal opponent as they have just dropped 20 places in the FIFA rankings to #56. While Poland are the sort of opposition that Canada should be playing (a strong side in Europe, that we have a chance of beating). It is a little frustrating that we are playing them when they are ranked artificially low. I mentioned in my previous post that we are planning to play a lot of matches. This is good for the team, but it hurts our Rankings. I would much rather have the team playing well than a high FIFA ranking. However I think that it is possible to have both. I know that scheduling friendlies is never an easy thing to do. That said Slovakia, who qualified for the World Cup after a disastrous 1-0 win in Poland where they were massively outplayed are ranked 20 spots above Canada. They are of a comparable quality to Poland, but they are ranked much higher. It would be better if we were able to play against them.

Alas what is done is done. And we have Macedonia and Poland coming up. So now the real question is who do we pick in the side? Do we bring European players in the middle of their season? Do we bring North American players who have finished their season? Do we call up some of the people with other national team options to try to sell them on Canada? It will be interesting to see what team Hart selects. Personally I am hoping that every player selected in the side will be able to play in the 2014 World Cup. That said it would be fun to line up both Klukowski and Radzinski against Poland, given that it happens to Canada all the time. So here is my starting XI for the two matches:

Hirschfeld

Ledgerwood - Edgar - Attakora - Klukowski

JDG2* - Atiba - JDG - Hume

Jackson - Hoilett**

*Why not eh? If we don't select him, I would use Will Johnson.
** Why not eh? If we don't select him I would move Hume to striker and play Issy.

Thoughts? What is your XI?

Why Canada IS playing Macedonia

I know that many of you have read my post about why Canada should not be playing Macedonia. Like you I want Canada to be in the best position going into qualifying for 2014. With that in mind I was prepared to not see Canada take to the field for another 7 months, solely to preserve our high FIFA points totals that we earned in the Gold Cup. As I mentioned on Canadian Terrace Talk when Sam first mentioned that Canada would be playing a friendly in November, I went to talk to the CSA to present my case about why we shouldn't be playing Macedonia. I wasn't able to meet with Peter Montopoli when I went to the office (a perk of living in Ottawa) but I met with his assistant and was able to set up a chance to talk with him. That happened yesterday. I told him that I wanted to understand the other issues that led to scheduling a friendly against Macedonia, and make sure that the CSA was aware of the numbers ahead of a potential qualifying draw in May 2011. What I heard was encouraging. We are playing Macedonia because we need to play matches otherwise we won't be good enough to qualify. We are also going to be playing other friendlies some of them even in Canada! I mentioned that the key thing was to play 5 matches between May 2010 and May 2011 and that didn't sound like it was going to be a problem. Which is great news for Canadian Soccer fans. As I mentioned in my post about the whole process Canada really dropped the ball between May 2006 and May 2007. We didn't play enough matches and we didn't play the right kind of opponent. I told Peter that I would keep him updated with the numbers. If Costa Rica lose their playoff with Uruguay (we should all hope that they do) then Canada is competing for three spots with Costa Rica, El Salvador, Panama, Jamaica, & Trinidad and Tobago. Right now we are in second. With a sizable lead over third. Things are looking good for Canada. The main thing for us is to win the matches that we play, and hope that Costa Rica, El Salvador, Panama etc lose any matches that they play. This should see Canada seeded as a top six team going into World Cup Qualifying for Brazil 2014. Which ideally means that we will be in the Hex, which would give us a shot at Brazil which I know we could take. Play Up Canada!

Canada Ranked #53

You may have noticed that Canada has jumped 13 places, and is now ranked #53. How did we accomplish this amazing feat without playing any matches? The FIFA rankings are based on four years worth of results. So for the October Rankings it includes Oct 08 - Oct 09 at 100%, Oct 07 - Oct 08 at 50%, Oct 06 - Oct 07 at 30%, and Oct 05 - Oct 06 at 20%. So for a painful yet concrete example that disaster in Montreal has now stopped counting against our 100% average entirely and is now counted against the 50% average. Given that our stellar performance in the Gold Cup is rated 100% we can expect to stay high in the rankings until July or August 2010 when that drops to 50%. At which point we should have already started playing friendlies in May so hopefully to maintain our ranking.

The points for each phase are calculated by average. So if a team accumulates 3000 points in a year. That total is divided by the number of matches that they have played (it must be at least 5, or it is divided by 5 anyway). So if a team only played 5 matches then they would have 600 points that count towards their ranking. But if they played another match and lost 3000 would be divided by 6 leaving them with only 500 points to count.

For the year May 09 - May 10 Canada has just over 2900 points from 6 matches or 484.5 points (at 100%). Any points that we gain will be added to our total and then divided by the number of matches. So it would make sense to play a team that could offer us at least 484.5 points if we won, otherwise we would be guaranteed to drop in the rankings. That means the lowest ranked team that Canada could play would be a UEFA team that is ranked #39 or #38. That means with a win we would stay where we are. To improve our standing we would have to play a higher ranked team and win.

Latest CONCACAF standings for the 2014 World Cup Qualifying

The good news for Canada is that Costa Rica may miss the World Cup, which would put them in contention with us. Hopefully Luis Suarez, Diego Forlan & co can ensure that the Ticos don't head to South Africa. Here are the latest standings for CONCACAF ahead of the 2014 World Cup Qualifying Draw, likely to be in May 2011. For information on the methods check out my previous post.

1. USA - 541.24
2. Mexico - 489.39
3. Honduras - 444.27
4. Costa Rica - 393.58
5. CANADA - 355.60
6. El Salvador - 269.58
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
7. Panama - 242.75
8. Jamaica - 211.52
9. Trinidad & Tobago - 194.99
10. Haiti - 174.21
11. Antigua & Barbuda - 148.41
12. Grenada - 114.54
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
13. Guatemala - 111.88
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
14. Cuba - 82.96
15. Bermuda - 79.89
16. Barbados - 72.12
17. Suriname - 63.11
18. Nicaragua - 52.66
19. St. Kitts & Nevis - 50.63
20. Guyana - 50.30
21. Netherlands Antilles - 50.18
22. Puerto Rico - 44.24
23. Belize - 22.31
24. St. Vincent & the Grenadines - 21.54
25. Cayman Islands - 19.00
26. St. Lucia - 12.75
26. Turks & Caicos Islands - 12.75
28. British Virgin Islands - 11.90
29. Bahamas - 8.50
30. Aruba - 6.50
31. Dominica - 4.93
32. Dominican Republic - 4.25
33. US Virgin Islands - 3.40
34. Anguilla - 0.00
34. Montserrat - 0.00

Why Canada should not play Macedonia - UPDATED

Right now Canada have accumulated 242.26 points towards the World Cup Qualifying Draw for 2014 from Phase 3. For more information on the phases check out this post.

If we win against Macedonia (based on their current rank of 56) we would LOSE 3.75 points.

If we drew against Macedonia (based on their current rank of 56) we would LOSE 24.32 points

If we lost against Macedonia (based on their current rank of 56) we would LOSE 34.61 points

So no matter what the result against Macedonia we lose ground. The next FIFA rankings come out tomorrow. They will show us where Macedonia will be ranked when we play them. For their to be a chance that Canada could improve its standings Macedonia would have to be ranked #39. So it is not going to happen.

UPDATE - The Rankings have come out and Macedonia is Ranked #66. So if we win we will lose 5.89 points, if we draw we will lose 25.04 points, and if we lose we still drop 34.61 points. The dropped points are all in relation to the potential World Cup Qualifying draw for Brazil 2014 in May 2011. The effect would be even more pronounced on the current rankings where a win would cost us approximately 12 points.

This was a reckless decision by the CSA that makes zero sense from an organization that should be focused on getting Canada into the strongest position for the WCQ 2014 draw.

I am going to get the latest standings for the 2014 WCQ draw out tonight or tomorrow.

UPDATE - The updated standings are up. You can see them here.

Looking ahead to World Cup 2014 Qualifying - Version 2.0

Here we go again. Earlier this year, in July to be exact, I published a post about what Canada needed to do in order to be in the best possible place for the qualifying draw for Brasil 2014. I got some things correct in that post, but I got a lot of things wrong too. Luckily Edgar at Football Rankings noticed my post and decided to help me out. Rather than go over the mistakes I made before, I will lay out the way things should be done correctly and go from there.

First off there are four phases involved in the accumulation of points that will impact the rankings when the qualifying draw is made. For the purposes of this post I have based the phases on the way in which the draw was conducted for 2010 qualifying.

Phase 1 May 17 2007 - May 7 2008
Phase 2 May 8 2008 - May 6 2009
Phase 3 May 7 2009 - May ? 2010
Phase 4 May ? 2010 - May ? 2011

As a quick aside, there was a comment on Edgar's website that suggested the draw could be made in August instead of May 2011. This would mean the Gold Cup 2011 would be included. The commenter suggested the change could be made to benefit Trinidad & Tobago, but this would also be a big help to Canada, as we tend to do well at the Gold Cup. Therefore I will continue under the assumption that things will be done the same way they were in the 2010 qualifying draw. A change from May to August would benefit Canada and place a large importance on the Gold Cup 2011.

Points are accumulated in each phase by winning or drawing a match. The totalled points from the phase are then divided by the number of matches played. For example, if a team had won two matches, drawn one, and lost five, their point total would be divided by eight. However, if a team plays fewer than five matches their total is still divided by five, so it is important to play at least five matches in each phase.

The points from each phase are also weighted differently: you are only able to count 20% of the points from Phase 1, 30% from Phase 2, and 50% from Phase 3. Teams are able to count 100% percent of the points from Phase 4.

Now that you have got all of that, here are the current standings for the points accumulated towards May 2011.

1. USA - 540.79
2. Mexico - 482.03
3. Honduras - 457.00
4. Costa Rica - 412.68
5. CANADA - 355.60
6. El Salvador - 251.68
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
7. Panama - 242.75
8. Jamaica - 211.52
9. Trinidad & Tobago - 193.96
10. Haiti - 174.21
11. Antigua & Barbuda - 148.41
12. Grenada - 114.54
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
13. Guatemala - 111.88
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
14. Cuba - 82.96
15. Bermuda - 79.89
16. Barbados - 72.12
17. Suriname - 63.11
18. Nicaragua - 52.66
19. St. Kitts & Nevis - 50.63
20. Guyana - 50.30
21. Netherlands Antilles - 50.18
22. Puerto Rico - 44.24
23. Belize - 22.31
24. St. Vincent & the Grenadines - 21.54
25. Cayman Islands - 19.00
26. St. Lucia - 12.75
26. Turks & Caicos Islands - 12.75
28. British Virgin Islands - 11.90
29. Bahamas - 8.50
30. Aruba - 6.50
31. Dominica - 4.93
32. Dominican Republic - 4.25
33. US Virgin Islands - 3.40
34. Anguilla - 0.00
34. Montserrat - 0.00

The draw is made and teams ranked 1-13 receive a bye to the Second Round. Teams 14 -35 play each other, with the eleven winners advancing to Round Two. The eleven winners from the first round plus the 13th ranked team then face the top twelve sides for a place in Round Three. Round three is a group stage that consists of three groups of four. When the draw is made the top six ranked teams are placed in such a way that should they advance from Round Two, there will be two members of the top six in each group. The top two teams from Round Three then advance to the final round known as "The Hex". The Hex contains six teams in one group. The top three teams qualify for the World Cup, the fourth place team enters into a playoff against the fifth place South American team.

At the moment we are sitting in fifth, which isn't bad news. The bad news is that USA, Mexico, Honduras, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Trinidad & Tobago are still playing in qualifying for the 2010 World Cup. This means they each have a minimun of three more matches in Phase 3. Playing lots of matches isn't necessarily a good thing, but as these matches are worth two & a half more than a friendly in points value, these teams can get a lot of points. I think at this point Canada can give up trying to catch any of the teams above us in the standings and should focus on staying in fifth or sixth place. The bonus is El Salvador and Trinidad & Tobago are last in the group. It would be ideal for Canada if they lost all of their remaining qualifying matches, which is possible since they have already played both games against each other. Matches at the World Cup will be a part of Phase 4 and count 100% towards the qualification rankings for 2014. Not only will matches at the World Cup be a part of Phase 4 when it is crucial to gain points, they also count four times as much as friendlies - meaning any results gained there will put those teams out of reach, so we need to have El Salvador and Trinidad & Tobago miss out on the World Cup in order to give ourselves the best chance at making the next one.

The next piece of bad news is most countries that are chasing are likely to participate in four or five qualifying matches for the Gold Cup 2011. These matches will be in crucial Phase 4 and count two and a half times what a friendly does. This will give an advantage to the countries that are chasing Canada for a place in the top six.

Now for some almost good news. The Canadian Soccer Association (CSA) has said there are no plans for any friendly matches for the next 18 months. I am fine with the decision not to play any more friendlies in Phase 3, which ends at yet to be determined date in May 2010. This is eight months from now. However we should start planning to play matches after the FIFA rankings come out in May 2010. We need to target countries that have higher than average rankings so we can get as many points as possible. The earliest opportunity is to play a country that was a part of the African Cup of Nations (ACN). This is the regional tournament of Africa; similar to CONCACAF's Gold Cup, it is played every two years. The matches in this tournament will count three times as much as a friendly. So we will see African teams fly up the rankings ahead of the World Cup, much the same way that CONCACAF teams flew up the rankings in August. Remember Canada jumped up 26 places. It won't matter that the tournament will affect rankings starting in March - as there will be no other competitive matches, the rankings shouldn't change drastically. The benefits are easy to see: if we play a team that is normally ranked in the seventies, but has moved into the forties or fifties, then we could get more than 60 extra points. We should also try to play matches against sides from Europe and South America, as these regions have a higher regional value. This means playing a team ranked 75 in the world from Europe or South America will get you more points than playing a team ranked 75 in the world from another region.

I am trying as much as I can to be realistic about the way this could play out. We had a disastrous Phase 4 in 2006-2007 and gained only 100 points and ended up finishing 11th. I am aware that the CSA is trying to expand the game in Canada, which I am in favour of; this will likely mean a friendly against a team with a big reputation. An example would be our match against Brasil a few years ago. However it would be more beneficial to save that match until after the qualifying draw for 2014 is made. With this in mind, here is my suggested Phase 4 friendly schedule for Canada.

Late May - before World Cup: Play an artificially high ranked African team. This would be a team that did well at the ACN, but did not make the World Cup and should be a side that Canada could beat. Ideally a team with only one star player. Togo is a side that may meet these criteria.

Any time - Play a friendly against Bolivia at sea level - either in Canada or at a neutral venue, but make sure it is at sea level. Bolivia are very, very difficult to beat at high alititude, but they are beatable at sea level.

November or February - Play a highly ranked warm weather team outside in Edmonton. Bolivia & other countries use their altitude to their advantage; we should take advantage of our cold.

Anytime - Play a European country, preferably ranked in the top 100. The match against Cyprus was a good example. How does taking on Bosnia-Herzegovina sound at BMO sound?

After the World Cup - Play a nation we can beat that was at the World Cup. If they managed to get some points there, their ranking will increase dramatically. That means more points if we are able to beat them.

If we follow this plan and win all five friendlies, we should double our points total which would be great. Even if we are able to add 200 more points, this would put us in good stead for claiming a top six place. Here are the points totals for the top six when the 2010 qualifying draw was made in 2007:

1. Mexico - 891
2. USA - 785
3. Costa Rica - 575
4. Honduras - 542
5. Panama - 514
6. Trinidad & Tobago - 463
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
11. CANADA - 342

You can see, as Canada are already at 355, we are already doing better than last time. We need to continue to build on our good form by playing at least five matches in Phase 4. In the 2006-2007 we only played four (Jamaica twice, Hungary, and Bermuda). As I mentioned above, the total points of a team are divided by a minimum of five, so only playing four is like losing a match. I should mention that staying at 355 is contingent on us not playing any more matches before Phase 3 ends and the May 2010 rankings come out. Even if we were to win, it would probably lower our points unless we beat a team in the top 40.

The way forward is simple: do not play any more matches until late May 2010. Then play at least five matches we can win before the May 2011 rankings are released and we should be in a strong position for the draw for qualifying. This should ideally put us through to The Hex, at which point we need to play our socks off, and hopefully in fours years' time Canada playing in the 2014 World Cup in Brasil will look like a reality.

Looking Ahead to World Cup Qualifying 2011

As a supporter of Canada, it is disappointing that we are already eliminated from the World Cup that is due to take place in less than a year in South Africa. But it is never to early to look ahead to 2014 in Brazil right? Which is exactly what I have done. Looking at the way that qualifying took place the last time around, I spent most of my weekend figuring out FIFA qualifying and ranking systems, to determine where Canada (and all other CONCACAF countries) stand in relation to Qualifying for the 2014 World Cup. So here goes:

You may recall that the World Cup Qualifying Draw was made BEFORE the Gold Cup in 2007. My planning was based upon this being the same next time around which means that the WCQ Draw will happen some time in May 2011. FIFA rankings take into account the last four years of a teams results. There is no penalty for losing, you gain points through wins & draws. A team can lose points over time as the ranking system values results differently. So the Current year is rated at 100%, last year at 50%, two years ago at 30%, and three years ago at 20%. So a team will appear to have lost points if a strong result crosses the threshold. I have skipped this by adjusting the values as if the date was May 2011, using the following dates. June 07 - May 08 20%, June 08 - May 09 30%, June 09 - May 10 50%, and June 10 - May 11 100%. We are already in the third phase for points that count towards are position in May 2011. So without further delay here are the current standings:

May 2011 Ranking	Country	Points for May 2011	Gap behind next	Current CONCACAF Ranking
1	United States of America	6969.28	0	1
2	Mexico	4933.1705	2036.1095	3
3	Costa Rica	4669.233	263.9375	2
4	Honduras	4546.451	122.782	4
5	El Salvador	3419.134	1127.317	10
6	Jamaica	2600.405	818.729	5
7	Trinidad & Tobago	2557.7775	42.6275	7
8	Canada	2437.255	120.5225	11
9	Panama	1949.369	487.886	6
10	Haiti	1437.871	511.498	16
11	Guatemala	1120.88	316.991	14
12	Cuba	1119.918	0.962	8
13	Grenada	1118.388	1.53	9
14	Antigua & Barbuda	918.595	199.793	12
15	Suriname	768.825	149.77	15
16	Barbados	735.335	33.49	13
17	Bermuda	479.3575	255.9775	21
18	Guyana	392.36	86.9975	17
19	Netherlands Antilles	360.06	32.3	19
20	Nicaragua	263.2875	96.7725	18
21	St. Kitts & Nevis	230.095	33.1925	20
22	Puerto Rico	221.2125	8.8825	23
23	Belize	116.875	104.3375	25
24	St. Vincent & the Grenadines	107.695	9.18	22
25	Cayman Islands	65.875	41.82	24
26	Turks & Caicos	63.75	2.125	27
27	British Virgin Islands	59.5	4.25	30
28	Bahamas	42.5	17	26
29	Aruba	32.5125	9.9875	31
30	Dominica	24.65	7.8625	32
31	St. Lucia	21.25	3.4	29
31	Dominican Republic	21.25	0	28
33	US Virgin Islands	17	4.25	33
34	Montserrat	0	17	35
34	Anguilla	0	0	34

Teams 1 - 6 are the top seeds and are placed in the draw for Stage 2 of Qualifying in such away that they will be the top two teams in the three groups that form Stage 3.

Teams 7 - 12 are also given a bye to Stage 2, but they could end up with any of the top seeds (This is where Canada was last time around)

Teams 13 - 35 are placed in Stage 1, with one team randomly getting a bye to Stage 2.

Stages 1 & 2 are a playoff format - with only one team advancing. Stage 3 is three groups with four teams with the top two teams advancing to Stage 4, or "The Hex".

The Hex is where 6 teams fight it out for 3.5 places in the World Cup (The .5 is a playoff against a 5th place South American team).

For Canada to have the best chance possible at reaching The Hex, we should try to ensure that we are in the top 6 teams by May of 2011. As you can see we are currently sitting in 8th. In case you were wondering these stats are current, including the group stages of the Gold Cup. Should Canada manage a quarterfinal victory against Honduras we will gain 615.825 points (410.55 if we win in overtime or shootout) towards our May 2011 totals. Which would see us break into the top six. Getting results in the Gold Cup is very important for Canada as it is our only chance to accumulate big points before the World Cup Draw is made in 2011. Just to give you an idea of what I am talking about. A friendly match has a multiplier of 1, A Gold Cup Qualifier or World Cup Qualifier 2.5, Gold Cup or Confederation's Cup 3, and World Cup 4. So if Canada beat Honduras next week in a friendly we would get 205.275 points towards 2011.
If Canada beat Honduras next week in WCQ we would get 513.1875 points towards 2011.
If Canada beat Honduras next week in the Gold Cup we would get 615.825 points towards 2011.
And If Canada beat Honduras next week in the World Cup we would get 821.1 points towards 2011.

Any CONCACAF country that makes the World Cup will get a big bonus for any results they get there. As will any team still in the Gold Cup (except for Guadelope who are not a country or member of FIFA, incidentally teams do NOT get points for beating them either). The six sides still competing in The Hex will also get a chance to boost their numbers with inflated multipliers. The Central American teams & Caribbean teams will get an advantage of playing in Gold Cup qualifiers before May 2011. Canada, USA, & Mexico get automatic places in the Gold Cup and thus do not get the opportunity to get points from qualifying matches.

So what can we do to make sure that we are in a great spot in May 2011? Simple win the Gold Cup, beating Honduras, USA, & Mexico ideally, but even that won't guarantee us a top six finish. WE NEED TO PLAY FRIENDLIES, LOTS AND LOTS OF FRIENDLIES! I was surprised to see the sheer number of matches that Trinidad & Tobago play, which is why even though we won our group in the Gold Cup, and they failed to qualify they are still ahead of us. Jack Warner knows how the system works and is certainly using it, and so should we! With the new rules that make virtually no difference between the U21 side and playing in a friendly. I would like to see Canada field teams (not necessarily our A team, perhaps the U21 team) in senior friendlies against any opposition we can find. There are certainly some teams where we could get more points, such as European or South American opponents as European teams give a multiplier of 1.00, while CONMEBOL gives 0.98 compared to 0.85 for CONCACAF and everyone else. But the main thing is that we need to play matches. Take the team on a Caribbean tour, play St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Turks & Caicos, Bahamas, Aruba... and rack up points along the way. We could be sneaky about it and play teams when they are at their weakest for example play Bolivia at sea level, play a country with one star when that star is injured, or our tried and tested strategy of playing anyone in November in Edmonton.

Canada really needs to take advantage of the fact that we can field a squad of North American based players, and these players are off from November to March. Canada needs to go on a tour and play a lot of matches in that time. If we don't play a lot of friendlies then we won't be able to grab a place in the top six, which means we run the risk of ending up in a group like we did last time around, which is something nobody wants to happen which is why I am sounding the alarm now.

I will keep updating the list. I will post the updated at the conclusion of the Gold Cup.